Patna: The political atmosphere in Bihar is charged with anticipation as the state gears up for the release of exit poll projections for the 2025 assembly elections. Following the completion of the second and final phase of voting, exit polls are set to be released from 6:30 pm today, offering the first major insight into voter sentiment ahead of the official results, which are scheduled for November 14.

The 243-member Bihar Legislative Assembly requires a minimum of 122 seats to form a majority government, making these elections highly significant. The contest is primarily between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Grand Alliance, popularly known as the Mahagathbandhan. The outcome will determine whether the NDA retains power or if the Mahagathbandhan, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), will form the next government.

Several leading pollsters, including Axis My India, P-Marq, Matrize, and Peoples Pulse, are expected to release their projections simultaneously. While exit polls do not guarantee the final results, they provide a snapshot of trends, highlighting voter preferences, regional swings, and potential shifts in political fortunes. Analysts suggest that these projections often influence pre-election narratives and can impact post-poll political strategies, even though they are based on sample surveys conducted immediately after voters leave polling stations.

Understanding Exit Polls

An exit poll is a post-poll survey that attempts to predict the outcome of an election based on the responses of voters who have just cast their ballots. Unlike opinion polls conducted prior to voting, exit polls offer a near-real-time assessment of electoral trends. They also help political analysts, media, and the public gauge voter behavior, including factors influencing choices such as candidate appeal, party performance, and local issues.

Despite their popularity, exit polls are not always accurate, as sampling errors and response biases can affect projections. However, they are widely considered a valuable tool to understand electoral mood, regional variations, and potential coalition dynamics, particularly in a politically complex state like Bihar.

Lessons from 2020 Exit Polls

The 2020 Bihar assembly elections provide a cautionary tale about the reliability of exit polls. In that election, the NDA secured a landslide victory, winning a total of 125 seats. Within the alliance, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) claimed 74 seats, the Janata Dal (United) 43 seats, while smaller allies such as the Vikassheel Insaan Party and Hindustani Awam Morcha won four seats each. Meanwhile, the RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, though its alliance, the Mahagathbandhan, ultimately fell short of forming the government.

Most exit polls leading up to the 2020 results had predicted a victory for the Mahagathbandhan, reflecting a disconnect between projected outcomes and actual voting patterns. Notably, News18-Today’s Chanakya predicted an overwhelming 180-seat win for the opposition alliance, while India Today-Axis My India projected 139–161 seats for the Mahagathbandhan. In contrast, projections for the NDA were far lower, with Chanakya predicting 55 seats and Axis My India estimating 69–91 seats.

Other pollsters, such as Republic-Jan Ki Baat, projected a closer contest, estimating 118–138 seats for the opposition and 91–117 for the NDA. P-Marq’s projection slightly favored the NDA, predicting a win with 123–135 seats while the Grand Alliance was projected to secure 104–115 seats. The eventual results demonstrated that exit polls, while indicative, can be misleading if sampling is not representative of the electorate’s full demographic and regional diversity.

Factors at Play in 2025

The 2025 elections are being closely watched due to several unique factors. Bihar has witnessed significant political mobilization on caste, development, and local governance issues. Key segments such as youth, women, and first-time voters are expected to play a decisive role. The contest also features multiple regional and national parties, adding layers of complexity to projections.

Political analysts are also tracking the performance of smaller allies within both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan, as seat-sharing arrangements and local alliances could influence overall outcomes. Additionally, voter sentiment toward the central government, state governance, and emerging issues such as employment, education, and infrastructure development is likely to shape the final verdict.

The results of the exit polls will provide the public, media, and political parties with early indications of trends, but final judgment awaits the official counting on November 14. In a state known for unpredictable swings, the difference between poll projections and actual results may be significant, emphasizing the dynamic and often volatile nature of Bihar politics.

As voters and political observers await the release of exit poll projections from 6:30 pm today, the state is poised for an intense and closely watched electoral finale. Whether the NDA retains power or the Mahagathbandhan emerges triumphant, the coming days promise to shape the political landscape of Bihar for the next five years.

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