The long-awaited Bihar assembly election results for the 243-member House are set to be declared on Friday, November 14, 2025, with counting beginning at 8 a.m. after the two-phase polling held on November 6 and 11. The state has 243 assembly seats, and the magic number for a majority is 122. The political battle is intensely watched, with the incumbent NDA led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar facing a formidable challenge from the RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan, fronted by Tejashwi Yadav. As the state braces for the verdict, several key aspects—ranging from political strategies, caste dynamics, voter behavior, security preparations, and exit polls—are shaping the atmosphere around the counting day.
NDA’s Reliance on Nitish Kumar and Modi’s Popularity
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by JD(U) in Bihar, has pinned its hopes on the experience and governance record of Nitish Kumar, the state’s veteran socialist leader. Nitish, known for his development-oriented and welfare-focused administration, has a long history in Bihar politics and has alternated between alliances with the BJP and the Mahagathbandhan.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaigning was a significant pillar for the NDA strategy. His popularity and appeal across urban and rural areas were leveraged to consolidate votes, especially among communities that traditionally support the NDA. The combination of Nitish’s regional presence and Modi’s national stature formed the twin engines of the NDA’s campaign approach.
Tejashwi Yadav’s Youthful Promise
On the opposition side, the RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan presented a starkly different profile, highlighting a generational shift in leadership. Tejashwi Yadav, son of former RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav, emerged as the chief ministerial candidate for the alliance. His campaign focused on change, promising jobs for every family and pushing a broader agenda of youth empowerment, development, and anti-incumbency reform.
Prashant Kishor, the election strategist turned political leader, played a central role in crafting the narrative of a fresh alternative to entrenched political dynamics. The combination of Tejashwi’s charisma and Kishor’s strategic planning aimed to present the Mahagathbandhan as a credible, energetic, and reform-oriented government-in-waiting.
Caste dynamics, which have historically influenced Bihar’s electoral outcomes, remained central in candidate selection, campaign messaging, and voter outreach for both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan.
Security and Election Commission Preparations
The Election Commission (EC) has undertaken robust measures to ensure a secure and transparent counting process. All Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) and Voter Verified Paper Audit Trails (VVPATs) are stored under a double-lock system within strongrooms, guarded by a two-tier security arrangement: central paramilitary forces on the inner perimeter and state police on the outer.
Additionally, 46 counting centers across Bihar are under continuous CCTV surveillance to maintain the integrity of the process and preempt any attempts at manipulation or tampering.
Exit Poll Predictions and Political Reactions
Exit polls conducted ahead of the vote count largely favored the JD(U)-BJP-led NDA, forecasting a comfortable majority in the range of 121 to 209 seats, surpassing the majority mark of 122 seats. These projections fueled the NDA’s confidence and prompted early celebrations, including the preparation of 501 kilograms of laddoos in Patna to distribute as symbolic “prasad” in anticipation of victory.
Despite the exit polls favoring the NDA, Tejashwi Yadav remained defiant, asserting that the Mahagathbandhan had internal indications of a “thumping majority.” He urged supporters to remain vigilant and maintain faith in the democratic process, citing past instances where exit polls had underestimated voter sentiment.
The ‘PK Factor’ and the Jan Suraaj Party
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), making a much-publicized electoral debut, was largely sidelined in exit poll predictions, with projections of fewer than five seats. Kishor’s campaign, however, emphasized youth issues and unemployment, seeking to influence the political narrative and potentially emerge as a kingmaker in a tightly contested assembly if results were inconclusive. Despite limited projections, the JSP’s presence added a new dimension to Bihar politics, particularly among first-time voters and urban constituencies.
CM Preference: A Surprising Twist
Interestingly, even as most exit polls indicated an NDA advantage, certain surveys highlighted Tejashwi Yadav as the “most preferred candidate for chief minister.” Axis My India reported a 34% approval rating for Tejashwi, significantly ahead of Nitish Kumar’s 22%, underscoring the gap between party allegiance and leader popularity. This divergence adds uncertainty to the final outcome and may influence post-election negotiations in case of a hung assembly.
Voter Turnout: Record High and Its Implications
Bihar witnessed a record voter turnout of nearly 67%, the highest in the state’s history since independence. Historically, spikes in voter participation have sometimes coincided with changes in government, suggesting potential vulnerability for incumbents. Analysts note that such high engagement may reflect an electorate eager for change, which could influence the final seat distribution.
Controversies Ahead of Counting
The pre-count period has not been without disputes. The RJD alleged “vote theft,” claiming a truck carrying EVMs entered the Sasaram counting center without notification. These allegations were refuted by Rohtas district magistrate Udita Singh, who clarified that the truck contained empty steel boxes, not EVMs.
Tensions also surfaced around inflammatory statements made by RJD MLC Sunil Singh, prompting the Bihar DGP to order an FIR. Singh had warned of street protests if the public mandate were allegedly tampered with, drawing parallels to political movements in Nepal and Bangladesh. Tejashwi Yadav similarly raised concerns about potential delays or disruptions in the vote-counting process, alleging attempts to create fear using military-style displays.
NDA’s Confidence and Contingency Measures
Despite controversies, NDA leaders exuded confidence on the morning of the count, expressing belief that the alliance would outperform even optimistic exit poll projections. Anticipating large-scale celebrations, victory processions were preemptively banned in Patna to prevent law-and-order challenges, reflecting the administration’s caution amid heightened political fervor.
The Verdict: A Moment of Political Reckoning
As counting commences, Bihar stands at a political crossroads. The NDA relies on Nitish Kumar’s experience and Modi’s popularity, while the Mahagathbandhan seeks to capitalize on Tejashwi Yadav’s youth, charisma, and reformist narrative. Record voter turnout, lingering controversies, and the presence of new entrants like the Jan Suraaj Party make this election especially unpredictable.
Whether Bihar continues under Nitish Kumar and the NDA or witnesses a generational shift under Tejashwi Yadav and the Mahagathbandhan will have significant implications for the state’s political trajectory, governance priorities, and the broader balance of power in national politics.
The verdict, expected to unfold through the day, will not only reflect voter preferences but also test the robustness of democratic processes in India’s politically vibrant heartland.
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