As the final phase of voting in the Bihar Assembly elections 2025 concludes on Tuesday, all eyes have shifted to the much-anticipated exit poll results. These projections, released by leading survey agencies, offer an early glimpse into voter sentiment and the likely distribution of seats in the 243-member Bihar Legislative Assembly. The stakes are high in this election, as the outcome will determine whether the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), retains power, or if the opposition Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), spearheaded by Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress-led INDIA bloc, succeeds in ending Kumar’s two-decade-long dominance in the state’s politics.

The Bihar assembly consists of 243 seats, with the majority mark set at 122. This threshold is critical because it determines which party or coalition can form a stable government. Given the state’s complex caste and community-based voting patterns, exit polls are often closely analyzed for trends that may indicate a shift in the electorate’s preferences. While exit polls are not official results, they serve as a preliminary barometer of public opinion and voter behavior.

Timing of Exit Poll Releases

The Election Commission of India (ECI) regulates the timing of exit poll releases to ensure fairness and prevent undue influence on voters. According to the ECI, no exit poll results can be published or broadcast before the conclusion of the final phase of voting. For the 2025 Bihar elections, voting in the last phase concluded around 5 pm on Tuesday, after which agencies began releasing their projections. This directive ensures that voters in later phases are not swayed by preliminary projections, preserving the integrity of the electoral process.

Leading survey agencies, including Today’s Chanakya, Axis My India, CVoter, CSDS, Jan Ki Baat, IPSOS, and Times Now, are expected to release their seat predictions immediately after the completion of polling. These agencies collect data across a wide demographic, from urban centres to rural villages, to provide a comprehensive understanding of voting trends and potential outcomes.

How Exit Polls Are Conducted

Exit polls are distinct from pre-poll opinion surveys in that they are conducted on the day of voting, immediately after citizens cast their ballots. Survey teams are stationed outside polling booths, where they approach voters who have just finished voting. Respondents are asked structured questions about whom they voted for, their reasons for the choice, and their demographic details, including age, gender, caste, and socio-economic status. The goal is to capture real-time voting patterns and discern trends that may affect the distribution of seats among parties and alliances.

To ensure reliability, survey teams carefully select representative samples from various regions and social groups. These samples include voters from both rural and urban areas, as well as diverse economic, educational, and occupational backgrounds. Analysts then process this data, cross-referencing it with historical voting patterns, demographic information, and previous election results. The final projections indicate not only the number of seats each party or alliance may win but also the potential swing in voter support compared to past elections.

The Role of Exit Polls in Understanding Voter Sentiment

Exit polls are widely regarded as tools to gauge the pulse of the electorate. While they do not determine the official outcome, they offer insights into voter priorities, preferences, and shifts in political allegiance. In Bihar, where politics is deeply intertwined with caste affiliations and local issues, exit polls help observers and political analysts understand how these factors are shaping the election.

For instance, analysts pay close attention to how different alliances perform in key districts and constituencies. The performance of NDA and Mahagathbandhan candidates among various caste groups, including Yadavs, Dalits, Kurmis, Brahmins, and other backward classes, often plays a decisive role in the overall seat tally. Additionally, voter sentiment regarding governance, development, employment, social welfare programs, and state-level policies is reflected in these projections, offering a snapshot of public opinion at the conclusion of voting.

Historical Context and Lessons from 2020

Exit polls for Bihar elections in 2020 provide a useful reference for understanding their predictive value and limitations. In that election, the NDA secured a majority with 125 seats. The BJP won 74 seats, JD(U) bagged 43 seats, and smaller allies such as the Vikassheel Insaan Party and Hindustani Awam Morcha captured four seats each. Meanwhile, the RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, although its alliance, the Mahagathbandhan, fell short of forming the government.

Interestingly, most exit polls in 2020 had projected a win for the Mahagathbandhan, predicting it would capture a clear majority. News18-Today’s Chanakya and India Today-Axis My India, for example, estimated a 180-seat and 139-161-seat victory respectively for the opposition alliance. Chanakya predicted just 55 seats for the NDA, while Axis My India projected 69-91. Other polls, such as Republic-Jan Ki Baat, forecast 118-138 seats for the opposition and 91-117 for the NDA. P-Marq, on the other hand, projected a narrow NDA win with 123-135 seats and 104-115 for the Grand Alliance. These discrepancies highlighted the inherent uncertainty of exit polls and the importance of analyzing multiple projections rather than relying on a single source.

The lessons from 2020 underscore that while exit polls offer a useful snapshot, they are not infallible. Sampling methods, regional coverage, voter turnout, and last-minute swings can all affect the accuracy of predictions. Consequently, analysts emphasize trends and patterns rather than exact seat counts.

Where to Follow the 2025 Bihar Exit Polls

For voters, political observers, and media audiences, there are multiple platforms to follow exit poll predictions in real-time. Television news channels provide live coverage and expert analysis as soon as the agencies release their seat projections. Prominent news outlets such as Times Now, NDTV, India Today, and Republic TV host detailed panels with political analysts, journalists, and local correspondents who interpret the emerging data.

Online platforms are equally important. Survey agencies such as Axis My India, CVoter, Jan Ki Baat, IPSOS, and Today’s Chanakya publish their projections on their websites and social media handles. These updates allow audiences to follow the evolving political landscape in Bihar, track constituency-wise projections, and understand the broader trends shaping the state’s politics. Leading news organizations, including Hindustan Times, also provide live updates, interactive maps, and analytical insights through dedicated Bihar election pages.

The Impact of Exit Polls on Political Strategy

While exit polls do not determine the official results, they influence political discourse and strategy. Parties use these projections to gauge voter response, anticipate possible outcomes, and prepare for post-election negotiations or coalition building. Exit polls can also impact media narratives, shaping public perception of electoral trends and political momentum.

However, the Election Commission stresses that the publication or broadcasting of exit poll results before the conclusion of the final phase of voting is strictly prohibited. Violations can attract penalties, including fines or imprisonment, emphasizing the importance of adhering to democratic procedures and ensuring that voter decisions are not influenced by preliminary projections.

Conclusion

As Bihar completes the final phase of voting in its 2025 assembly elections, exit polls offer the first glimpse into how the electorate may have cast its vote. While these projections are not definitive, they serve as a crucial tool to understand voter sentiment, anticipate political shifts, and analyze emerging trends. In a state where electoral outcomes are often shaped by a complex interplay of caste dynamics, local issues, governance record, and alliance strategies, exit polls provide valuable insights into the likely distribution of power in the coming assembly.

The official counting of votes will take place on November 14, when the Election Commission of India will declare the final results. Until then, the exit poll projections offer a preliminary understanding of which alliances may have gained the edge and how Bihar’s political landscape may be reshaped in the next legislative term. Observers and citizens alike will closely monitor these projections, weighing them against historical trends, demographic patterns, and regional dynamics, as the state stands at a critical juncture in its political journey.