The Bihar assembly election results delivered a resounding setback to the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), exposing the cracks within an alliance that was formed in 2023 to challenge the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s dominance. By 5pm on counting day, the bloc had managed to lead in only 33 out of 243 seats, while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) surged ahead in 204, marking one of its most decisive victories in the state.

The results underscored what analysts had warned for months: the INDIA bloc’s lack of cohesion, fragmented strategy, and unresolved internal rivalries would ultimately weaken its electoral prospects. And that is precisely what unfolded at the booth level across the state, where “friendly fights” and rebellions splintered the opposition vote, allowing the NDA to sweep through.

A Test of Unity That the Opposition Failed

The Bihar elections were widely seen as a litmus test for the INDIA bloc’s ability to function as a united political front. However, tensions surfaced early during seat-sharing talks. Several alliance partners, particularly the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, struggled to reach consensus on candidate selection. Differences over ticket allocation led to discontent, resulting in rebels entering the fray and allies contesting against each other—often in key constituencies where the opposition could have mounted serious challenges.

Political analysts noted that these internal fissures were not merely organisational lapses but reflected deeper trust deficits within the coalition. Locally influential leaders who were denied tickets chose to contest independently, while others refused to withdraw nominations despite intervention from top leadership.

As political commentator Rama Shakar Arya observed, the so-called friendly fights “reflected deeper mistrust within the Opposition, turning potential strongholds into lost causes.”

How Vote Splits Cost the INDIA Bloc Crucial Seats

A closer look at individual constituencies reveals the scale of the damage caused by vote division.

In Kahalgaon, the RJD’s Rajnish Bharti had polled 37,047 votes by the 13th round. However, she trailed far behind JD(U)’s Subhanand Mukesh, who secured 61,126 votes. Congress candidate Pravin Kushwaha, an INDIA ally, received only 4,722 votes—but those votes were enough to weaken the combined opposition challenge. The split ensured Mukesh’s comfortable lead.

A similar pattern emerged in Sultanganj, where the Congress fielded Lalan Kumar, who managed 1,868 votes. RJD’s Chandan Kumar Sinha secured 52,244, while JD(U)’s Lalit Narayan Mandal led the race with 71,314 votes. Analysts pointed out that the combined INDIA vote share in such constituencies could have surpassed the NDA tally—highlighting the consequences of poor coordination.

In Raja Pakar, the Congress’s Pratima Kumari trailed with 29,401 votes, far behind JD(U)’s Mahendra Ram, who had 57,113 votes. The Communist Party of India’s Mohit Paswan, another INDIA constituent, secured 10,767 votes. Once again, opposition votes scattered across multiple candidates helped the JD(U) consolidate its position.

These instances were not isolated but part of a broader pattern across numerous seats, cumulatively contributing to the NDA’s sweeping lead.

Rebellions: Another Blow to Opposition Unity

Beyond vote-splitting between alliance partners, the INDIA bloc also grappled with rebels—leaders who contested as independents or shifted loyalty after being denied tickets. These candidates often had local influence and traditional vote banks, making their dissent particularly damaging for official nominees.

This phenomenon was especially pronounced in constituencies where the RJD expected to perform strongly; rebels siphoned off significant vote shares, weakening the party’s prospects even in areas considered loyalist belts.

An RJD strategist put it succinctly: “Friendly fights turned into fatal blows.”

A Landslide for the NDA

The NDA exploited these cracks effectively. The JD(U) and BJP ran coordinated campaigns, avoided public disputes, and projected a unified leadership and message. Their micro-level management—especially in regions where multi-cornered contests emerged—allowed them to consolidate votes while the opposition fragmented.

In many constituencies, even where anti-incumbency sentiments were present, the absence of a single strong opposition candidate prevented any meaningful challenge to the ruling coalition.

A Wake-Up Call for the INDIA Bloc

The Bihar results highlight a stark reality for the INDIA alliance: defeating the BJP-led NDA requires not only ideological alignment but also electoral discipline, organisational coherence, and strategic clarity. Seat-sharing disagreements, personal ambitions, and factional rivalries proved costly, undermining the bloc’s credibility as a viable alternative.

The election was meant to demonstrate the INDIA bloc’s readiness for more significant electoral battles ahead. Instead, it has exposed the alliance’s vulnerabilities at a critical juncture.

Unless the INDIA bloc addresses its internal divisions and learns from the mistakes of Bihar—particularly the impact of friendly fights and rebel candidates—it risks repeating this pattern in future contests.

The verdict from Bihar is clear: unity on paper is not enough. Unity on the ground is what wins elections.