Updated on: November 12, 2025 | 11:16 PM IST

As Bihar prepares for the counting of votes on November 14, 2025, exit polls are providing the first clear indication of the likely outcome of the assembly elections. Today’s Chanakya exit poll, released on Wednesday evening, has projected a comfortable and commanding win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) (JD-U), over the opposition RJD-led Mahagathbandhan.

The pollster’s projections, made shortly after Axis My India’s exit poll, forecast the NDA securing around 160 seats with a margin of error of ±12, translating to a potential range of 148 to 172 seats in the 243-member Bihar Legislative Assembly. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan is projected to win 77 seats ±12, giving them a range of 65 to 89 seats. Other parties are expected to secure roughly 6 ± 3 seats, indicating a minimal impact from smaller players in this election.

Context of Bihar Assembly Elections

The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections were held in two phases, on November 6 and November 11, across 243 seats. The elections are being closely watched due to the high-stakes contest between the ruling NDA and the opposition Mahagathbandhan. The NDA, in power, has been led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, in alliance with the BJP. The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, meanwhile, has been attempting a comeback after narrowly missing victory in the 2020 elections.

This election has also witnessed the entry of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which had campaigned on issues such as governance reforms and social development, positioning itself as a potential “kingmaker” in Bihar politics. However, both Today’s Chanakya and Axis My India predict the party will make little electoral impact, with the party likely to win zero to five seats at most.

Key Takeaways from Today’s Chanakya

• NDA’s Projected Win: 160 ±12 seats (range: 148–172)
• Mahagathbandhan’s Projected Seats: 77 ±12 seats (range: 65–89)
• Other Parties: 6 ±3 seats
• Majority Mark: 122 seats

The poll results suggest that the NDA is poised for a comfortable majority, potentially allowing the alliance to form the government without the need for coalition support from smaller parties.

Comparison with Axis My India Exit Poll

Axis My India’s exit poll, released earlier on Wednesday, projected a closer contest, with the NDA winning 121–141 seats and the Mahagathbandhan securing 98–118 seats. While Axis My India gives the NDA a narrower edge, both polls collectively indicate a likely return to power for the NDA, albeit with varying seat margins.

Most exit polls released on Tuesday had also indicated a clear advantage for the ruling NDA, projecting them to secure 130 to 209 seats, surpassing the majority mark of 122 seats.

Implications for Key Leaders

The exit poll results, particularly the Today’s Chanakya projections, carry significant political implications:

• Nitish Kumar and BJP leadership: With the NDA projected to comfortably cross the majority mark, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, along with the BJP leadership, is expected to consolidate power and continue governance with minimal political hurdles.
• Mahagathbandhan leadership: The RJD-led alliance, despite maintaining a strong presence in certain constituencies, appears set to face a significant setback. The exit polls suggest that while the alliance retains a base, it may not be able to unseat the ruling coalition.
• Prashant Kishor and Jan Suraaj Party: The exit poll projections indicate a poor debut performance for the Jan Suraaj Party, contrary to earlier speculation that the party could influence the electoral outcome as a “kingmaker.”

Trends and Voter Preferences

According to analysis by pollsters, several factors influenced voter behavior:

• Incumbency advantage: The NDA’s governance record, combined with Nitish Kumar’s leadership, appears to have helped consolidate votes in their favor.
• Fragmentation of opposition votes: While the Mahagathbandhan sought to unify anti-NDA votes, the presence of smaller parties like the Jan Suraaj Party may have fragmented the opposition vote in several constituencies.
• Regional considerations: Certain regions with strong local issues showed mixed trends, but overall, the NDA performed well across a broad geographic spectrum.

Looking Ahead

With vote counting scheduled for November 14, Bihar is expected to witness heightened political activity as parties gear up for either formation of the new government or preparation for post-poll negotiations. If Today’s Chanakya exit poll projections hold true, the NDA will likely form the government with a comfortable majority, consolidating its political dominance in Bihar.

The results will also set the stage for discussions about the Chief Ministerial face. While Nitish Kumar remains the incumbent, exit polls have shown surprising trends in voter preference, with RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav emerging as a preferred candidate for Chief Minister among certain segments of voters, despite the NDA’s projected overall win. This nuanced voter sentiment may shape future strategies and coalition negotiations within Bihar politics.

Conclusion

The Today’s Chanakya exit poll, alongside Axis My India’s projections, provides a strong indicator of an NDA victory in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, suggesting a likely resounding win for the ruling alliance. The Mahagathbandhan faces an uphill task to challenge the incumbent government effectively, while new entrants like the Jan Suraaj Party appear unlikely to influence the overall electoral outcome significantly.

As Bihar awaits the official results, scheduled for November 14, political observers and parties alike are analyzing exit polls to gauge the future political dynamics, leadership preferences, and potential policy directions in India’s politically significant state.