Patna, November 12, 2025 — With the conclusion of the second phase of voting in the Bihar assembly elections on Tuesday, political attention has turned to the predictions made by exit polls and the reactions of key leaders. While several exit polls projected that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to retain power in the 243-member state assembly, Congress leader Supriya Shrinate expressed confidence in the opposition Mahagathbandhan’s prospects, asserting that the people of Bihar will “teach a lesson” to the incumbent government for allegedly manipulating their voting rights.

Speaking on Wednesday, Shrinate declined to comment directly on the exit polls, emphasizing that the final verdict would only come with the counting of votes. “I will not speak on the exit polls. We will discuss it when the results are out. However, Bihar will teach a lesson because its right to vote has been manipulated… I am sure that the Mahagathbandhan will form the government,” she said.

Her statement reflects the optimism within the opposition ranks, even as several independent surveys forecast a comfortable lead for the NDA. Supporting her viewpoint, Samajwadi Party MP Awadesh Prasad also dismissed the exit poll projections, asserting that the people of Bihar have made up their minds to elect Tejashwi Yadav as Chief Minister. “This exit poll is wrong… I had addressed a public rally. People have made up their mind to remove the BJP government… Elections were held for 121 seats in the first phase… We are of the opinion that we will get at least 175 seats,” Prasad claimed.

The exit polls, released shortly after the completion of polling, predicted a different scenario. According to multiple surveys, the NDA appeared poised to form the government once again, with the Mahagathbandhan trailing behind. The newly formed Prashant Kishor-led Jan Suraaj, which contested the assembly elections for the first time, was largely projected to have minimal impact in terms of winning seats.

Key survey projections included:

• People’s Pulse Poll: NDA 133–159 seats, Mahagathbandhan 75–101 seats, Jan Suraaj 0–5 seats, others 2–8 seats.
• People’s Insight Survey: NDA 133–148 seats, Mahagathbandhan 87–102 seats, Jan Suraaj 0–2 seats, independents 3–6 seats.
• JVC Survey: NDA 135–150 seats, Mahagathbandhan 88–103 seats, Jan Suraaj 0–1 seat, others 3–6 seats.
• DVC Research Poll: NDA 137–152 seats, Mahagathbandhan 83–98 seats, Jan Suraaj 2–4 seats, others 4–8 seats.

Despite the differing predictions, the elections witnessed a record voter turnout, which could influence the final results. According to the Election Commission, the overall polling percentage across the two phases stood at 66.91%, the highest in the state since 1951. The first phase, held on November 6, recorded 65.08% voter participation. This heightened engagement indicates a highly mobilized electorate, eager to exercise its democratic rights after a politically charged campaign season.

The second phase of polling on November 11 covered key constituencies and drew significant attention from national and state political leaders, who campaigned vigorously to consolidate support. While the exit polls have set expectations for an NDA victory, leaders of the opposition Mahagathbandhan continue to express confidence, emphasizing voter sentiment, grassroots mobilization, and perceived anti-incumbency as factors that could tilt the results in their favor.

With counting scheduled for November 14, political analysts suggest that the state’s electorate could deliver surprising outcomes, potentially defying exit poll projections. The Mahagathbandhan’s confidence in a decisive mandate appears rooted in widespread campaigning and outreach efforts that highlighted concerns over governance, public welfare, and regional development.

Supriya Shrinate’s remarks also reflect broader tensions in Bihar’s political landscape. The opposition has repeatedly accused the NDA of influencing voter behavior through administrative mechanisms and other indirect pressures. By framing the elections as a referendum on the ruling coalition’s governance, leaders like Shrinate aim to energize voters and reinforce the message of accountability at the polls.

Meanwhile, the NDA, led by the BJP in Bihar, has relied on highlighting its achievements in infrastructure development, social welfare programs, and law-and-order management. Exit polls indicate that the NDA’s narrative has resonated with a substantial portion of the electorate, projecting a possible return to power. However, with several constituencies witnessing closely contested battles, the final outcome remains uncertain until the official counting is complete.

The role of newly emerging political entities such as Jan Suraaj also remains a subject of scrutiny. Although exit polls predict negligible impact for the party, analysts caution that in tightly contested constituencies, even a small share of votes could influence overall seat distribution.

As Bihar waits for November 14, when results will be formally announced, the atmosphere is charged with anticipation. The high voter turnout, contrasting narratives from exit polls, and the confidence expressed by opposition leaders like Supriya Shrinate have created a dynamic political environment. While the NDA appears favored according to surveys, the Mahagathbandhan’s assertions underline that the verdict of the electorate may not align neatly with predictions.

The ongoing political discourse in Bihar underscores the importance of voter engagement, democratic participation, and the unpredictable nature of elections. As stakeholders across the spectrum prepare for the official results, all eyes remain on the counting centers, where the final composition of Bihar’s legislative assembly will soon be revealed, determining the state’s political trajectory for the coming term.

---