Guwahati, Assam – As Assam gears up for assembly elections expected in March–April 2026, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Sunday projected a strong performance for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Speaking at an event in Dimoria, Kamrup Metropolitan district, Sarma suggested that the BJP-NDA coalition is poised to win 103 of the state’s 126 assembly seats, signaling a potentially decisive mandate for the incumbent government.

“I wouldn’t like to give an exact figure,” Sarma said on the sidelines of the event, “but this time we have a chance of winning 103 seats. Earlier, the probability was around 90 seats, but with the delimitation of constituencies, that number has increased by another 13–15 seats.” The chief minister emphasized that the party and its allies would contest the majority of seats vigorously, while acknowledging that the remaining 23–24 constituencies would feature “symbolic” contests, where the likelihood of victory for the BJP-NDA is comparatively lower.

The BJP currently maintains alliances with three regional parties in Assam: the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF). These alliances have historically helped the BJP consolidate support among the state’s indigenous communities and across tribal-dominated regions. However, Sarma noted that specific seat-sharing arrangements among these allies have not yet been finalized, leaving room for strategic negotiations ahead of the polls.

The recent delimitation of assembly and parliamentary constituencies in Assam has played a key role in shaping the political landscape ahead of the elections. In August 2023, the Election Commission completed the delimitation of all 126 assembly seats and 14 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state, resulting in significant redrawing of boundaries. According to BJP sources, the exercise was intended to strengthen representation for the state’s indigenous population, and party leaders believe the changes will improve their prospects in several constituencies.

“The BJP and its allies will contest the 103 seats with full vigour,” Sarma said. “We don’t have much chance of winning in the remaining 23–24 seats. There will be a symbolic fight in those seats. Of the 103 where we will give a good fight, the voters could give us 100, 90, or 80 seats.” His remarks underscore the party’s confidence in its core vote base while signaling that the focus will remain on consolidating support in winnable constituencies.

Opposition parties in Assam have also begun preparing for the upcoming elections, with the Congress party moving quickly to appoint its leadership for election management. A notification issued late Saturday night by All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary named Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as chairperson of the party’s screening committee for Assam. Her role is expected to involve overseeing candidate selection, coordinating campaign strategies, and liaising with regional leaders to maximize the Congress’s chances across key constituencies.

Assam Congress president Gaurav Gogoi has announced that his party plans to contest 100 of the 126 seats, leaving the remaining 26 to other potential opposition allies such as the Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)]. The Congress has also clarified that the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) will not be part of the opposition grouping, further defining the contours of electoral alliances in the state. Gogoi emphasized that a united opposition front is essential to challenge the ruling BJP-NDA coalition in constituencies where the government’s grip appears strong.

Political analysts note that Assam’s electoral dynamics are shaped by a combination of demographic, ethnic, and regional factors. The BJP has relied heavily on support from indigenous communities and tribal groups, as well as consolidating votes among Hindu-majority constituencies. Meanwhile, the Congress and other opposition parties aim to mobilize traditional support bases, including minority communities and constituencies where local issues, such as flood management, agriculture, and infrastructure development, remain critical voter concerns.

The upcoming elections are also expected to be influenced by national-level developments and party strategies. Analysts believe that the BJP’s approach in Assam will hinge on leveraging its alliance network to maintain a broad coalition, while the Congress and its partners will attempt to forge strategic alliances to counterbalance the BJP’s stronghold. Additionally, candidates’ local reputation, grassroots engagement, and record in constituency development will play crucial roles in determining outcomes.

Delimitation has added another layer of complexity to the electoral map. Some constituencies have been restructured, while others have seen shifts in voter composition, which may affect party calculations and candidate selection. The BJP appears confident that the reorganization of constituencies will work in its favour, particularly in areas where the indigenous population has been given increased representation. Meanwhile, the Congress is likely to focus on leveraging traditional strongholds and forming strategic partnerships to expand its electoral footprint.

Sarma’s public projection of winning 103 seats is a clear signal of the BJP’s confidence and strategic optimism. Party insiders suggest that the announcement is part of a broader campaign to boost morale among cadres and create a perception of invincibility ahead of the elections. Political observers, however, caution that pre-election projections are subject to change based on factors such as voter turnout, local issues, and the effectiveness of opposition campaigns.

The Assam assembly elections are expected to be closely watched, not only for their local implications but also for their impact on regional and national politics. The state has historically played a key role in shaping political narratives in northeastern India, and the performance of major parties here is often interpreted as a barometer for broader electoral trends. The alliance dynamics, voter mobilization strategies, and results in Assam may provide insights into how regional and national parties are positioning themselves ahead of the next general elections.

In the coming months, both the ruling coalition and the opposition will intensify campaign efforts, focusing on door-to-door outreach, public rallies, social media campaigns, and local issue advocacy. The BJP and its allies are expected to highlight their governance record, development projects, and welfare schemes, while the Congress and its allies will likely stress the need for change, addressing local grievances, and challenging the ruling coalition on key policy decisions.

In conclusion, the political landscape in Assam ahead of the 2026 assembly elections is shaping up to be a high-stakes contest between the ruling BJP-NDA coalition and a coordinated opposition led by Congress. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s projection of winning 103 seats underscores the ruling alliance’s confidence, while opposition strategies aim to consolidate their voter base and build partnerships to counter the BJP’s dominance. With the final seat-sharing arrangements yet to be formalized and voter sentiment continually evolving, the upcoming polls are poised to be closely contested, with outcomes likely to influence both state and national political narratives.

As Assam approaches the elections, all eyes will remain on how parties navigate alliances, address local issues, and mobilize voters in a state where electoral dynamics are deeply intertwined with identity, development concerns, and regional aspirations. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the BJP-NDA can convert its projected dominance into a decisive mandate, or whether a united opposition front can mount a credible challenge.