BEIJING / TAIPEI, November 27, 2025 – China’s Ministry of Defence has warned that Japan will face a “painful price” if it steps out of line regarding Taiwan, in response to Japan’s plans to deploy missiles on Yonaguni Island, approximately 110 km (68 miles) east of Taiwan’s coast. The statement marks the latest escalation in tensions between the two countries and highlights ongoing cross-strait security concerns.

Japan’s Missile Deployment Plans

Japan’s Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi confirmed that plans to deploy a medium-range surface-to-air missile unit at Yonaguni are “steadily moving forward.” The deployment has drawn sharp criticism from Beijing, which views Taiwan as an internal matter and condemns any foreign interference.

Chinese spokesperson Jiang Bin told a regular news briefing that the Taiwan issue is solely a Chinese matter. He added, “Not only has Japan failed to deeply reflect on its grave crimes of aggression and colonial rule in Taiwan, it has instead, in defiance of world opinion, entertained the delusion of military intervention in the Taiwan Strait.”

Jiang emphasized that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has the capability and means to defeat any invading force and warned Japan that even a half-step of interference would result in a “painful price.”

Taiwan Responds with Defence Spending

Taiwan’s government continues to reject Beijing’s territorial claims, asserting that the island’s people alone can determine their future. This week, President Lai Ching-te unveiled plans to increase defence spending by $40 billion over the next eight years, aimed at strengthening Taiwan’s security in light of growing military pressure from China.

China criticised the spending as a waste, claiming it could plunge Taiwan into disaster. A spokesperson for Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, Liang Wen-chieh, countered that China’s military budget far exceeds Taiwan’s and said the funds could be better used to improve economic conditions and livelihoods on the mainland. Liang stressed that prioritizing cross-strait peace would benefit both sides.

Rising Military Activity Around Taiwan

The PLA conducts near-daily operations in Taiwan’s waters and airspace, which Taipei considers part of a harassment and pressure campaign against the island. Analysts say these actions, combined with Japan’s missile deployment plans, heighten the risk of military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait and underscore the fragile state of regional security in East Asia.

Geopolitical Implications

The warning from Beijing highlights the escalating geopolitical tension in the Asia-Pacific region. With Taiwan investing heavily in its defence capabilities and Japan asserting a strategic presence near the island, the situation underscores the growing military rivalry and diplomatic friction between China and Japan, with potential implications for U.S. involvement and broader international security.