As Nigeria gears up for the 2027 general elections, the country’s democracy faces significant pressure. Political actors are increasingly prioritizing electoral ambition over governance, engaging in elite bargaining, strategic realignments, and early campaigning—even before the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) lifts the official campaign ban. This pattern reflects systemic weaknesses that undermine accountability and threaten electoral credibility.

INEC will conduct three key elections in 2026—the FCT Area Council elections and governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun States. These contests are strategically important, as they could influence the 2027 general elections. The elections will test INEC’s independence, transparency, and ability to ensure credible results. Proposed reforms in the Electoral Act 2026, including mandatory electronic transmission of results, aim to strengthen electoral integrity.

However, multiple threats loom over the 2027 elections:

1. Erosion of Political Competition
   Political defections and weakening opposition parties risk eliminating genuine electoral contestation. A restricted political space may disincentivize voter participation, paving the way for de facto one-party dominance and undermining democratic legitimacy.
2. Electoral Cynicism
   Many Nigerians doubt that their votes matter, fueled by a perceived collusion among security agencies, INEC, and the judiciary. Incidents of conflicting results, bypassing voter authentication systems, and political defections contribute to widespread distrust.
3. Insecurity and Electoral Disruption
   Ongoing insurgency, banditry, communal conflicts, and separatist agitations threaten safe and inclusive elections. Insecurity may hinder election logistics, disenfranchise voters in conflict zones, and compromise the credibility of results.

Addressing the Threats

• An Independent and Principled INEC
  INEC’s leadership must ensure institutional independence, fairness, transparency, inclusivity, and credibility. Strengthening party regulation, candidate validation, and results management systems is critical to restoring public trust.
• Active Citizen Participation
  Voter vigilance is crucial. High turnout and citizen monitoring at polling units can deter manipulation and enhance the legitimacy of elections. Public engagement ensures that electoral reforms translate into meaningful outcomes.
• Neutral Security Architecture
  Security agencies must uphold professionalism and non-partisanship. A patriotic, constitutionally-aligned security framework is essential to protect electoral integrity and prevent coercion or manipulation.

The path to a credible 2027 election will depend on the combined commitment of INEC, citizens, and security agencies. Nigeria’s democracy can either advance toward legitimacy or slide further into electoral authoritarianism, depending on how effectively these actors rise to the challenge.

Samson Itodo is an election, democracy, and public policy expert. He is Executive Director of Yiaga Africa, Principal Partner of the Election Law Center, Chairperson of the African Union Advisory Group on AI in Peace, Security and Governance, and a member of the Kofi Annan Foundation board.