Mussoorie:
The prolonged absence of winter rain and snowfall in Uttarakhand has triggered serious concern among farmers, horticulture experts, and policymakers, as the state’s agriculture and horticulture sectors—particularly apple cultivation in the higher Himalayan reaches—face mounting stress. With January half over and winter precipitation still largely missing, experts warn that the consequences could ripple through crop yields, rural livelihoods, and local economies in the months ahead.

Apple cultivation, a major source of income for thousands of hill families in districts such as Uttarkashi, Tehri, Chamoli, and parts of Pithoragarh, is especially vulnerable to changing winter patterns. Apples are a climate-sensitive crop, and their productivity depends heavily on a natural dormancy cycle that is triggered by sustained cold temperatures.

According to Bharat Singh Kathait, horticulture in-charge of the Dhanaulti apple belt, apple trees require between 1,000 and 1,500 hours of exposure to temperatures ranging from 0°C to 7°C during winter to complete their dormancy phase. This chilling period is essential for healthy flowering and fruit formation in spring.

“The absence of snowfall has kept ground temperatures higher than usual,” Kathait explained. “This disrupts the trees’ natural rhythm. When dormancy is incomplete, it results in weak flowering, poor fruit setting, smaller apple size, and duller colour. All of this directly reduces market value and overall production.”

A Pattern of Dry Winters

Meteorological data indicates that this is not an isolated bad year but part of a worrying trend. December rainfall in Uttarakhand has remained weak over the past five years, with normal or above-normal precipitation recorded only once during this period.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) figures highlight the extent of the deficit. Between December 2013 and January 2014, the state recorded 5.4 mm of rainfall. In 2015–16, rainfall stood at 8.5 mm. December 2018 saw less than 2 mm, while December 2023 to January 2024 recorded just 4.4 mm. Most concerningly, there was zero recorded rainfall between November 1, 2025, and January 13, 2026.

C.S. Tomar, Director of the Dehradun Meteorological Centre, attributed the situation to weak or deficit western disturbances. These weather systems normally bring winter rain and snowfall to the western Himalayas. Their reduced frequency and intensity this season have resulted in prolonged dry conditions across the state.

Impact on Apple-Growing Regions

The effects of this dry spell are being felt acutely in apple-producing belts such as Harsil and Dharali in Uttarkashi district. Farmers here are increasingly anxious that if snowfall does not arrive soon, the 2026 apple crop could suffer significant losses.

Families in Dharali village, which was badly affected by flash floods and landslides in August last year, had pinned their hopes on apple production to recover financially. Gram Pradhan Ajay Negi said the situation has become grim.

“There has been no rain or snow in November, December, and now January,” he said. “If snowfall does not occur soon, apple flowering will be badly affected. That will mean a sharp drop in yield, and for villages like ours, that could be devastating.”

Local apple grower Satendra Panwar, who owns over 1,800 apple trees in Dharali, warned that the absence of snowfall could also create ideal conditions for pests and fungal infections later in the season. “If winters are dry, pests survive more easily and fungal diseases can spread in April,” he said.

Another grower from Harsil, Neeraj Panwar, described the situation as an “impending economic crisis” for horticulture-dependent communities. “Apples are not just a crop here; they are our backbone. A bad season affects everything—education, health, and migration,” he said.

Broader Agricultural Stress

The lack of winter precipitation is not affecting apples alone. Agriculture across Uttarakhand’s hill districts is under strain. In Chamoli district, Chief Agriculture Officer J.P. Tiwari said lentil, wheat, and mustard crops have suffered significant damage due to moisture deficiency and frost-related stress.

Rain-fed crops such as wheat and lentil have shown poor germination and stunted growth since November. Sumit Chaudhry, assistant professor at the Agronomy College of Hill Agriculture and in-charge of the Ranichauri observatory in Tehri district, said prolonged dryness has reduced soil moisture at critical stages of crop development.

“Farmers have been advised to undertake manual weeding and hoeing to retain whatever soil moisture is available,” Chaudhry said. However, he added that such measures can only provide limited relief in the absence of rainfall or snowfall.

Experts warn that inadequate winter snow reduces deep soil moisture, which is crucial for sustaining crops and orchards during the summer months. This increases the risk of tree dehydration, premature fruit drop, and a surge in pest infestations as temperatures rise.

Economic and Social Implications

The impact of reduced agricultural output extends beyond farms and orchards. Kritika Kumari, a senior scientist in the food processing department in Tehri district, said that lower wheat and lentil production could disrupt local supply chains. Self-help groups engaged in food processing, many of which depend on locally grown produce, are likely to face raw material shortages and income losses.

Agriculture and horticulture minister Ganesh Joshi acknowledged the seriousness of the situation. “According to initial estimates, around 15% of the seasonal crop has already been affected due to the absence of rain,” he said.

Joshi said officials have been directed to conduct an immediate statewide survey to assess crop damage, quantify losses, and submit a detailed report. “Based on this assessment, appropriate relief and support measures will be planned for affected farmers,” he said.

Weather Outlook and Uncertain Hope

The IMD has issued a weather advisory for Uttarakhand, offering a small measure of hope. Very light rain or snowfall is likely at isolated locations above 3,400 metres in Uttarkashi, Chamoli, and Pithoragarh districts between January 16 and 21.

However, meteorologists caution that such limited precipitation may not be sufficient to compensate for the prolonged deficit. Dense fog and cold wave conditions are expected in the plains, including Haridwar, the Nainital plains, Champawat, Dehradun, and Udham Singh Nagar from January 16 to 19. Ground frost may occur at isolated hill locations, potentially affecting agriculture and travel.

For farmers across Uttarakhand, the coming weeks are crucial. Many are hoping that even modest snowfall could partially restore soil moisture and help apple trees complete at least part of their chilling requirement. Without it, experts warn, the state could be heading toward lower crop yields, higher pest pressure, and increased economic stress in rural and hill communities.

As climate variability increasingly reshapes Himalayan winters, the current dry spell underscores the growing vulnerability of mountain agriculture—and the urgent need for long-term adaptation strategies to protect livelihoods that depend so closely on snow and rain.