The political landscape of Mumbai continues to simmer with tension and strategic maneuvering even after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the single-largest party in the recent Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections. While the BJP secured a decisive victory in terms of the number of seats, it fell short of the majority mark, triggering fears of defections and prompting preemptive measures by other parties, particularly the Eknath Shinde-led faction of the Shiv Sena.

In a move widely interpreted as a precautionary strategy, Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde took swift action to safeguard his newly elected corporators. Reports indicate that Shinde’s faction has shifted its 29 newly elected corporators to a hotel in Bandra, a tactic commonly employed in Maharashtra politics when numbers in a legislative or civic house are tight and the risk of poaching is high. By consolidating his legislators in a secure location, Shinde ensures that the party retains cohesion and control over its members until the post-election scenario stabilizes and alliances are formally determined.

The BMC, considered the richest civic body in India, has a total of 227 seats, with the majority mark set at 114. According to the final results, the BJP won 89 seats, while the Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena secured 29. Together, the ruling alliance of the BJP and Shinde Sena now holds 118 seats, just four more than the halfway mark. This narrow cushion underscores the fragility of the alliance and explains the urgency behind Shinde’s decision to relocate his corporators to a secure hotel environment. Political analysts point out that even a small shift in loyalties or any act of cross-voting could significantly alter the power dynamics within the civic house.

On the opposition side, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) has maintained a defiant stance despite losing control of the civic body. Thackeray emphasized that it remains his “dream” to see a Shiv Sena (UBT) mayor elected in Mumbai and suggested that this goal could still be achieved if circumstances were favourable. In a cryptic comment, made a day after the results, Thackeray hinted that the party could still wield influence in the civic administration, although he did not provide specific details on the strategy or pathway to achieving this.

Political commentators note that the division within the Shiv Sena was a key factor contributing to the BJP’s relative success. Sunil Prabhu, a leader within the Uddhav Thackeray faction, argued that the BJP’s performance was possible only because of the fragmentation within the Shiv Sena. Former Congress leader Sanjay Jha also highlighted this point, stating that if the Shiv Sena factions had remained united, the BJP would have faced a far more challenging contest. According to this perspective, a patch-up between the two Shiv Sena factions, possibly supplemented by an alliance with the Congress, could have resulted in a majority that might have pushed the BJP into opposition.

The election results themselves provide a clear picture of the altered political landscape. While the BJP emerged as the single-largest party with 89 seats, the Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena secured 65 seats, and the Shinde faction added another 29. Had the two Shiv Sena factions been united, their combined strength would have been 94 seats, surpassing the BJP’s tally and potentially reshaping the outcome of the BMC elections. Furthermore, an alliance with the Congress could have enabled them to comfortably cross the majority threshold, thereby controlling the civic house despite BJP’s plurality.

The BJP, while officially celebrating its emergence as the single-largest party, has expressed dissatisfaction with the final results. The party had originally set an ambitious target of winning at least 110 seats to move closer to an outright majority. The central leadership of the BJP had initially planned to contest more than 155 seats, aiming for a total of 120 to 125 victories. However, following intensive negotiations and strategic seat-sharing arrangements, the Shinde faction secured 91 seats, leaving the BJP with 137 contested seats. After recalibrating its expectations, the BJP revised its target to 110 seats but was ultimately able to secure only 89, falling well short of its revised goal.

Several internal factors have been cited by BJP leaders as reasons for the underperformance. A senior party member, who spoke on condition of anonymity, pointed to coordination issues within the Mumbai unit, flawed candidate selection, and the party’s inability to effectively counter the “Marathi asmita” and Mumbai pride narrative promoted by Raj Thackeray and Uddhav Thackeray. The failure to fully capitalize on pre-election inductions of corporators from other parties also contributed to the party’s inability to reach its target. Ahead of the polls, the BJP had incorporated 11 sitting corporators from other parties, bringing its tally of sitting corporators to 93, including its own 82. Despite these efforts, the BJP could not even retain the number of sitting corporators, underscoring the challenges it faced in consolidating local support.

The narrow margins and the fragmented political landscape have heightened anxiety across party lines. In Mumbai, the post-election period is often marked by strategic negotiations, last-minute alliances, and intense lobbying to secure control of key posts such as the mayor, deputy mayor, and chairpersons of various civic committees. In this context, the Shinde faction’s precautionary move to house corporators in a secure hotel is an effort to prevent defections, ensure party discipline, and maintain bargaining power as negotiations continue.

For the BJP, the immediate task is to consolidate its gains, prevent any erosion of support among its elected corporators, and explore potential alliances that could help stabilize the majority. Given that the ruling alliance currently has only a slim margin above the halfway mark, the party cannot afford complacency. Even a small defection from the Shinde faction or uncommitted corporators could complicate efforts to control the civic administration.

Meanwhile, the Uddhav Thackeray faction continues to project itself as a resilient opposition force, leveraging the narrative that the BJP’s gains were contingent on a split within the Shiv Sena. Analysts suggest that the Uddhav faction may attempt to court defectors or independent corporators to influence the mayoral election and other strategic positions within the BMC. While the possibility of a patch-up between the Shinde and Uddhav factions remains uncertain, such a move could dramatically reshape the balance of power in the civic house.

In summary, the BMC election results have produced a scenario where the BJP, despite emerging as the single-largest party, does not have an outright majority. The Shinde faction’s proactive strategy of moving corporators to a hotel reflects the high stakes of local politics in Mumbai, where even a few defections can determine control of the city’s richest civic body. As parties continue to negotiate and jockey for position, the coming weeks are likely to witness intense political maneuvering, with the ultimate control of the BMC hanging in a delicate balance.

The current situation highlights the precarious nature of electoral politics in Mumbai, the strategic importance of maintaining party cohesion, and the complex interplay between alliances, defections, and post-election negotiations. While the BJP celebrates its numerical advantage, the Shinde faction’s caution underscores that in Indian politics, being the single-largest party does not automatically translate into governance, especially in tightly contested assemblies or civic bodies where margins are thin and strategic maneuvering can alter outcomes in unexpected ways.