Global temperatures over the past three years have, for the first time, exceeded the critical 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The data, released on Wednesday, highlights a worrying trend in the pace of global warming, with 2025 ranking as the third warmest year on record, just 0.01°C cooler than 2023 and 0.13°C below 2024, the warmest year recorded.

The report underscores the intensity and persistence of climate change. While 2025 saw slightly lower air and sea surface temperatures in the tropics compared to 2023 and 2024, conditions remained significantly above average across much of the globe, particularly in higher latitudes. The Antarctic recorded its warmest year on record, while the Arctic experienced its second warmest annual temperatures, highlighting the uneven but accelerating impacts of climate change on polar regions.

Drivers Behind the Recent Temperature Surge

Scientists attribute the exceptional warmth of 2023–2025 to a combination of factors. Foremost is the persistent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, driven by continued human emissions and a reduction in natural carbon dioxide absorption by terrestrial and oceanic sinks. Elevated sea-surface temperatures also contributed, influenced by ocean variability and amplified by climate change. These conditions were further compounded by changes in atmospheric circulation, variations in cloud cover, and shifts in aerosol concentrations.

C3S noted that the unusual warmth observed over the past three years has been compounded by oceanic phenomena such as El Niño. Although 2025 experienced ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific, temperatures outside the tropics remained significantly elevated. Experts warn that the emergence of stronger El Niño conditions later in 2026 could further accelerate warming.

Implications for Climate Monitoring and Resilience

Mauro Facchini, Head of Earth Observation at the Directorate General for Defence Industry and Space, European Commission, stressed that surpassing a three-year average of 1.5°C is a milestone that the world did not want to reach. “It reinforces the importance of Europe’s leadership in climate monitoring to inform both mitigation and adaptation strategies,” Facchini said. He added that the Copernicus programme is expected to play a pivotal role in developing tailored tools for European climate resilience, risk management, and early warning systems.

The report also highlights the uneven nature of warming. While tropical regions experienced slightly cooler temperatures relative to recent years, much of the globe, particularly the Arctic and Antarctic, experienced extreme warmth. This pattern reflects how global climate change can produce both regional variability and extreme impacts simultaneously, creating challenges for adaptation and disaster preparedness.

Geopolitical Challenges to Climate Action

The report arrives amid increasing geopolitical uncertainty that could affect global climate efforts. In January 2026, the United States withdrew from 66 international organisations and conventions, including its planned exit from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Climate experts warn that such moves could undermine coordinated international efforts to curb global warming.

Climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll stressed that global warming “does not pause for politics.” He urged nations to ensure that international climate institutions continue functioning, data flows remain uninterrupted, and core climate functions—including scientific assessment, early warning systems, and climate finance—are maintained. Koll emphasised that dependence on a single country for institutional health is fragile, highlighting the need for robust, multilateral commitments.

“The immediate priority should be to prevent a domino effect,” Koll said. He called for leaders to publicly reaffirm climate action, safeguard funding for scientific and technical work, and ensure that the schedules of global climate bodies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Conference of Parties (COP), remain on track. The IPCC, comprising 195 member countries including the United States, continues its work irrespective of any single nation’s participation, though consistent support remains essential for continuity.

Looking Ahead

The Copernicus report signals a sobering milestone: for the first time, sustained global temperatures have exceeded the 1.5°C threshold over a three-year period. Scientists warn that the trajectory of warming could intensify in the coming years, particularly with the potential development of an El Niño event in mid-2026.

Experts stress the importance of using these data to inform climate policy, enhance resilience strategies, and accelerate emission reductions worldwide. As the global community confronts rising temperatures, melting ice caps, and extreme weather, the C3S findings underscore that urgent, coordinated action remains the only viable path to mitigating the worst impacts of climate change.