The International Criminal Court (ICC) is preparing to issue a highly anticipated ruling on whether former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will be granted provisional release from detention. Duterte, who faces charges of crimes against humanity linked to thousands of alleged extrajudicial killings during his bloody anti-drug campaign, has been held in The Hague for more than eight months.

ICC appeals judges are expected to announce their decision on Friday, a development closely watched by human rights advocates, victims’ families, and political observers in the Philippines. Many opponents of Duterte have strongly urged the ICC to keep the former leader detained, arguing that he remains a potential threat to witnesses and the integrity of the judicial process.

Duterte’s Appeal for Release

Duterte’s lawyers are challenging an October 2025 decision that denied his request for provisional freedom. Judges had previously ruled that the former president posed a significant risk of fleeing and could intimidate witnesses if released.

His legal team now argues that Duterte is “infirm and debilitated”, claiming his declining health makes continued detention “cruel” and prevents him from assisting in his own defense. Court filings submitted earlier this year alleged that his cognitive functions have deteriorated substantially.

However, these claims have been disputed even by members of Duterte’s own family. Relatives who visited him in detention reported that the 80-year-old former president appeared “well” and “very engaged.”

Human Rights Advocates Oppose Release

In Manila, prominent human rights lawyer Kristina Conti, who represents the families of victims killed during Duterte’s drug war, said she is “99 percent confident” that the ICC will reject the appeal.

“There’s strong evidence why he should stay in jail. The defense is not even contesting the reasonable basis for crimes against humanity — they are only arguing health issues,” Conti said on social media.

She added that the pretrial chamber’s findings were legally solid, offering no justification for overturning the earlier ruling.

Charges Linked to Thousands of Killings

Duterte faces allegations of orchestrating a campaign of state-sanctioned violence during his term as both a local mayor in Davao City and later as president from 2016 to 2022.

According to ICC prosecutors, he ordered or encouraged violent acts, including murder, against suspected drug users and dealers.

• Philippine National Police estimates place the death toll at more than 6,000,
• while human rights groups say the real number could reach 30,000.

Victims’ families celebrated Duterte’s March 2025 arrest, seeing it as a long-awaited step toward accountability after years of failed domestic investigations.

ICC Jurisdiction and Political Controversy

The charges against Duterte span the period from November 1, 2011, when he was still mayor, to March 16, 2019, the day the Philippines’ withdrawal from the ICC became official.

In 2018, after the ICC announced a preliminary investigation into drug war killings, Duterte abruptly declared that the Philippines would exit the court, a move rights advocates viewed as an attempt to evade prosecution. Nevertheless, ICC judges reaffirmed in October that they have full jurisdiction over crimes committed while the Philippines was still a member.

Possible Transfer if Released

If Duterte is granted provisional release, he will not return to the Philippines. Instead, he would be transferred to the custody of a different ICC member state to ensure his availability for future hearings.

His daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, previously stirred controversy by suggesting that Duterte’s supporters should march to The Hague and stage a “jailbreak,” remarks condemned by legal experts and human rights groups.

What Comes Next?

The ICC ruling, expected within hours, will determine whether Duterte remains in custody or is released under strict conditions while proceedings continue. Either outcome will have significant political ramifications in the Philippines, where public opinion remains sharply divided over his legacy.