The International Crisis Group (ICG) has called on US President Donald Trump to abandon threats of military intervention in Nigeria and instead ensure that America’s security and humanitarian concerns protect citizens of all religious faiths.

In its latest report on Nigeria, the global conflict-research and peace-building organization warned that Trump’s proposed operation to stop a so-called “mass slaughter” of Christians is misinformed and could worsen existing crises.

“Reports that reduce Nigeria’s security situation to a single story of widespread persecution of Christians misinterpret the complexity of violence and interfaith relations in the country,” the ICG said.

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Complexity of Violence in Nigeria

The ICG highlighted that while Nigeria’s overall security situation has worsened in recent decades, there is no credible evidence that Christians are at greater risk than other Nigerians.

Citing data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), the group stated that killings explicitly motivated by religious extremism constitute only a fraction of nationwide fatalities.

The report further noted that in states such as Benue and Plateau, violence is often driven by ethnic and material disputes rather than religion, reflecting the multi-faceted nature of conflict in Nigeria.

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Geographic and Religious Dynamics

According to the ICG, the epicentres of violence are primarily in the North East and North West, regions where Islam is the majority religion and most victims are Muslim. In contrast, in the predominantly-Christian South East, both perpetrators and victims are largely Christian.

The group stressed that although Nigeria’s constitution guarantees the religious rights of all citizens, enforcement has been uneven, leading to protests, lynching, and imprisonment over accusations of blasphemy.

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Risks of US Military Intervention

The ICG cautioned that US airstrikes targeting Christians could have unintended consequences, including:

• Worsening Nigeria’s security and humanitarian situation
• Stirring public anti-American sentiment
• Undermining local interfaith peace-building efforts

Instead, the organization urged the Nigerian government under President Bola Tinubu to strengthen internal security and governance.

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Recommendations to the Tinubu Administration

ICG called on the Nigerian government to:

• Mobilize political will and resources to dismantle armed groups
• Enhance security forces’ capacity to protect citizens
• Reform the livestock sector to reduce associated conflicts
• Improve international communication, including filling vacant ambassadorial positions

Additionally, the ICG recommended that the US engage Nigeria through existing diplomatic channels, including high-level bilateral summits and the US-Nigeria Binational Commission, to sustain international efforts in ending mass killings.