Kolkata, November 30, 2025 – India’s population, currently the world’s second largest, is projected to stabilise by 2080 at around 1.8 to 1.9 billion, driven largely by a sharp decline in fertility rates, according to the Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP). The announcement reflects a dramatic demographic shift in the country over the past two decades, with implications for economic planning, healthcare, and social policy.

Fertility Rate Drop: A Rapid Demographic Transition

Speaking to PTI, Anil Chandran, general secretary of IASP, highlighted that the total fertility rate (TFR) in India has now fallen below the replacement level of 2.1, currently standing at 1.9. “In 2000, our TFR was 3.5. Today it is 1.9. This is a drastic decline in just over two decades,” he noted.

Chandran explained that this fall in fertility is part of a rapid demographic transition, in which high birth and death rates give way to lower birth and death rates as a country develops. “India’s population is expected to peak at around 1.8 or 1.9 billion by 2080. All estimates indicate that our maximum population will remain below two billion,” he added.

The demographic trend is closely linked with broader socio-economic developments. “Development is inversely proportional to birth rates. As literacy, income, and access to healthcare improve, fertility declines,” Chandran explained.

Education and Women’s Empowerment as Key Drivers

One of the most significant factors behind the declining fertility rate is female literacy and education. Chandran emphasized that educated women are delaying marriage and childbearing, resulting in smaller families. “Couples today are better informed and exercise greater control over when and how many children to have,” he said.

Improved access to contraceptives and family planning resources has also played a crucial role in accelerating the decline. Couples now have better knowledge of reproductive health, enabling planned and fewer pregnancies, which contributes to the overall reduction in fertility rates.

Economic opportunities for women, particularly in urban areas, have further influenced reproductive choices. As more women pursue careers and delay marriage, fertility rates among educated and urban populations have fallen significantly. According to Chandran, fertility among illiterate groups still remains above three, but among educated couples, the TFR ranges between 1.5 and 1.8, indicating a substantial demographic shift.

Regional Variations in Fertility Decline

While the national average shows a decline, fertility rates vary widely across states. Kerala serves as a model example. The state achieved replacement-level fertility between 1987 and 1989, and its current TFR stands at around 1.5. Similarly, West Bengal has witnessed a sharp drop. The Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2023 shows the state’s TFR has fallen from 1.7 in 2013 to 1.3 in 2023, a decline of nearly 18 percent, placing it among the lowest in India alongside Tamil Nadu and Delhi.

Chandran noted that West Bengal now records the lowest urban TFR and the second-lowest rural TFR in the country. Such regional trends underscore the influence of education, urbanisation, and access to healthcare on reproductive behaviour, highlighting that demographic change is uneven but widespread.

Implications of an Ageing Population

The declining fertility rate, while helping stabilise population growth, creates new challenges, particularly regarding the care of the elderly. Chandran pointed out that life expectancy continues to rise due to improvements in healthcare, meaning more people are living beyond the age of 60.

“This demographic shift brings a growing need for elderly care, particularly as younger populations migrate to cities or other countries for work,” he said. Solutions such as elderly day-care facilities, geriatric healthcare services, and community support programs are increasingly being discussed as part of long-term planning.

The combination of lower fertility and longer life expectancy will lead to a higher dependency ratio, with fewer working-age individuals supporting a growing elderly population. Policymakers will need to anticipate these changes and implement strategies to ensure sustainable economic growth and social security.

The Role of IASP in Population Research

Founded in 1971, the Indian Association for the Study of Population comprises around 1,100 demographers and population scientists. The organisation regularly deliberates on issues related to fertility, mortality, migration, and population policy, working closely with national and international bodies such as UNFPA, the Population Council, and the Population Foundation of India.

IASP’s research highlights the need for evidence-based population planning, taking into account changing fertility patterns, ageing populations, and regional demographic variations. The association has consistently advocated for policies that balance population stabilisation with human development, education, and health interventions.

Looking Ahead: Population Stabilisation and Development

India’s projected population stabilisation by 2080 is a momentous demographic milestone. While it reflects success in family planning and socio-economic development, it also presents new opportunities and challenges.

On one hand, a stabilising population could ease pressure on natural resources, healthcare systems, and infrastructure, allowing India to focus on improving quality of life, education, and economic prosperity. On the other hand, an ageing population will require robust social security systems, healthcare facilities, and policies that support older adults, while ensuring a productive workforce.

Chandran stressed that India’s demographic trajectory demonstrates the interplay between development, education, and reproductive choices. “Population stabilisation is not just a statistic; it reflects real changes in society, lifestyle, and aspirations,” he said.

As India moves toward a projected peak of 1.8–1.9 billion people, policymakers, demographers, and civil society will need to work together to leverage demographic change for sustainable growth, while addressing the challenges of an increasingly ageing society.

With declining fertility rates, rising life expectancy, and shifting demographic patterns, India is entering a new phase of its population history—one that could shape the country’s economic, social, and healthcare landscape for decades to come.