Iran is grappling with one of the most severe water crises in its modern history as the dams feeding Tehran and other major cities approach critical low levels. Authorities warn that if rainfall does not arrive soon, Tehran—home to more than 10 million residents—may face water rationing or, in the most extreme scenario, partial evacuation.
Drought and Extreme Heat: A Perfect Storm
The country is now in its sixth consecutive year of drought, compounded by scorching summer temperatures exceeding 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit). The Meteorological Organization reports that Iran has received only 2.3mm of rainfall by early November 2025—an 81% drop from the historical average for this period.
As a result, 19 dams—up from nine just three weeks prior—are now at less than 5% capacity. Key reservoirs serving Tehran, including Lar, Latyan, Karaj (Amir Kabir), Taleqan, and Mamloo Dams, average only 10% of capacity, sparking viral social media coverage of near-dry reservoirs.
President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that without rain, authorities may have to ration water or evacuate the capital, though experts stress evacuation is a last resort.
Agriculture: The Hidden Culprit
Despite the water crisis, Iran continues to devote over 90% of its water supply to agriculture, which contributes only 12% of GDP and 14% of employment. Agricultural policies emphasizing domestic food self-sufficiency strain scarce water resources, with nearly 30% of produce wasted due to outdated irrigation, crop mismanagement, and insufficient infrastructure.
Dr. Morad Kaviani, professor of geography and hydropolitics, explained that Iran’s legal requirement for 85% of domestic food to be locally produced exacerbates water scarcity, leaving the population reliant on unsustainable water practices.
Infrastructure Strains and Groundwater Depletion
Decades of mismanagement and heavy infrastructure intervention—often through the IRGC’s construction projects—have worsened Iran’s water situation. Reservoirs frequently remain partially empty, groundwater is over-extracted, and cities like Tehran rely on distant aquifers transported through aging infrastructure.
Experts warn that physical water losses (15%) and illegal consumption (16%) further reduce the effective water supply, leaving the system in an “almost unrecoverable state.”
Economic and Social Consequences
Civil engineering expert Farshid Vahedifard highlighted that Iran faces severe economic and social repercussions if water scarcity persists. Rising inflation, unemployment, high living costs, and urban-rural inequalities may intensify protests and local tensions.
Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi announced imminent water rationing measures, including potential nighttime shutdowns, urging citizens to purchase water storage tanks. Urban users consuming disproportionately high volumes may face penalties.
Environmental Collapse and Climate Pressures
Iran’s water crisis is compounded by climate change, which has amplified droughts, heatwaves, and rainfall unpredictability. The UN University’s Kaveh Madani warned that decades of unsustainable water management have left Iran effectively “water bankrupt,” with energy and natural gas resources also under strain.
Efforts such as desalination projects and inter-basin water transfers have provided short-term relief but cannot solve the structural scarcity caused by mismanagement and infrastructure decay.
Need for Long-Term Water Reform
Experts stress the urgent need for resilience-based water management in Iran, including:
- Groundwater recharge and aquifer restoration
- Integrated water–energy–agriculture planning
- Infrastructure investment and modernization
- Transparent data sharing and community participation
Vahedifard emphasized that equitable water management is essential not only for fairness but for environmental stability and social cohesion. Without bold, long-term reform, Iran’s water crisis may continue to deepen, threatening both urban populations and agricultural livelihoods.
Conclusion
Iran’s water crisis is a convergence of climate change, outdated infrastructure, overreliance on agriculture, and poor management. With dams near empty, aquifers depleting, and millions at risk of water rationing, the country faces an unprecedented challenge. Immediate rainfall may temporarily relieve the pressure, but sustainable policies, modernization, and long-term planning are critical to prevent further social, economic, and environmental disaster.
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