Argentina heads to the polls this Sunday for crucial midterm legislative elections that could decide the fate of President Javier Milei’s sweeping economic reforms — and the survival of a proposed $40 billion US bailout package backed by Washington.
The vote marks a defining moment for the populist president, who has spent his first two years in office pursuing radical free-market reforms aimed at slashing public spending and deregulating Argentina’s long-troubled economy. But these austerity measures have triggered widespread pain among Argentines, setting the stage for a deeply polarizing election.
What’s at Stake in Argentina’s 2025 Midterm Elections
Argentines are voting for half of the Chamber of Deputies (127 seats) and a third of the Senate (24 seats). The outcome will determine whether Milei’s La Libertad Avanza (Freedom Advances) party can strengthen its limited power in Congress — or face further gridlock.
Currently, Milei’s party controls just 37 deputies and six senators, less than 15 percent of the legislature. His goal: to secure at least a third of the seats, enough to fend off opposition attempts to block his libertarian reform agenda.
At a fiery campaign rally in Rosario, Milei told supporters:
“Don’t give up because we’re halfway there. We’re on a good path.”
Washington’s $40 Billion Lifeline — and Trump’s Warning
The stakes are not only domestic. Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump announced a potential $40 billion bailout for Argentina, which includes a $20 billion currency swap to stabilize the peso and a possible $20 billion credit facility.
But Trump, who has publicly aligned himself with Milei’s right-wing ideology, warned that US support depends on Milei’s electoral success.
“If he doesn’t win, we’re not going to waste our time,” Trump said. “You have somebody whose philosophy has no chance of making Argentina great again.”
The bailout has stirred controversy in Washington, especially among US farmers who see Argentina as a competitor in the global soybean market. Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa criticized the move, asking, “Why would the USA help bail out Argentina while they take American soybean producers’ biggest market?”
Despite backlash, Trump defended his decision, saying Argentina “is fighting for its life” and “has no money.”
Milei’s War on Inflation and the Price of Austerity
Since taking office in December 2023, President Milei, a self-described “anarcho-capitalist”, has slashed thousands of public sector jobs, frozen public works, and cut spending on education, healthcare, and pensions.
Brandishing a chainsaw as a campaign symbol, Milei promised to “cut the state down to size” — and he’s followed through.
While these measures have reduced inflation dramatically — from 12.8 percent before his inauguration to 2.1 percent last month — they’ve also driven millions of Argentines deeper into poverty. Economic growth has stagnated, consumer spending has plummeted, and social discontent is rising.
Milei’s efforts to privatize state-owned companies and overhaul Argentina’s welfare system have repeatedly been blocked by opposition lawmakers, leaving his economic overhaul incomplete.
Political Scandals and Falling Approval Ratings
The president’s momentum has been further undermined by corruption scandals involving members of his inner circle — including his sister and chief of staff, Karina Milei.
Meanwhile, Milei’s approval rating has dropped sharply amid public frustration with austerity and unemployment. His party’s recent losses in key provincial elections, including Buenos Aires Province, have raised doubts about his ability to expand his congressional influence.
Analysts warn that without stronger political backing, Milei’s reform drive — and the US bailout — may falter.
Mauricio Monge, a Latin America economist at Oxford Economics, told AFP:
“If history has taught us anything about Argentina, it’s that bailouts rarely succeed when political support wanes.”
The Future of Argentina’s Economic Transformation
The 2025 midterm elections represent a referendum on Milei’s radical experiment — a test of whether Argentina’s voters will continue to back a president who has promised short-term pain for long-term gain.
If Milei strengthens his position in Congress, he may be able to push through the structural reforms needed to stabilize the economy and maintain US backing. But a poor showing could leave him isolated, weakened, and struggling to deliver on his campaign promise to make “Argentina great again.”
Either way, the outcome of this election will define Argentina’s political and economic trajectory for years to come.
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