The contest for five Rajya Sabha seats from Bihar, scheduled to go to polls in April next year, has begun well ahead of time, with political parties within the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) already weighing their options and testing internal equations. While the NDA appears numerically well placed to secure a majority of the seats, the battle for the fifth seat has emerged as a complex political puzzle involving alliance management, personal ambitions, and delicate negotiations with the Opposition.

The five Rajya Sabha members from Bihar whose terms are ending include Prem Chand Gupta and A.D. Singh from the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Harivansh and Ram Nath Thakur from the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)], and Upendra Kushwaha from the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM). Their impending exit has opened up intense discussions across party lines, particularly within the NDA, which currently holds power in the state.

Numbers favour NDA, but not without caveats

In the Bihar legislative assembly, a candidate requires the support of at least 41 MLAs to be elected to the Rajya Sabha. The NDA, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), JD(U), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), RLM, and other allies, enjoys a combined strength of 202 lawmakers. On paper, this gives the alliance a comfortable path to securing four of the five seats without difficulty.

However, the arithmetic becomes tighter when it comes to the fifth seat. Even with its current strength, the NDA will fall short by three votes to secure all five seats independently. This means that for the final berth, the ruling alliance will either have to secure cross-voting or tacit support from a small section of the Opposition, or negotiate a strategic understanding that alters the expected outcome.

Political observers say this numerical gap has turned the fifth seat into the most keenly contested and politically sensitive prize in the upcoming election.

BJP’s internal calculations and emerging contenders

Within the BJP, discussions around potential nominees have intensified. Among the most talked-about names is Nitin Nabin, the Bankipur MLA and former Bihar minister, who was elevated as the BJP’s national working president earlier this month, on December 15. His recent political elevation has been accompanied by clear signals of a possible move to national-level politics.

Senior BJP leaders said Nabin has been allotted bungalow number 9 on Sunehri Bagh Road, located in the Lutyens’ zone of New Delhi—an area traditionally reserved for senior political figures. Renovation work at the bungalow is reportedly underway, and Nabin is expected to move in after Makar Sankranti. The symbolic importance of the address has not gone unnoticed within political circles, especially since bungalow number 5 in the same locality is the residence of Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi.

While the BJP has not officially announced any candidate, party insiders suggest that Nabin’s organisational role at the national level strengthens his prospects for a Rajya Sabha nomination.

Another name doing the rounds within BJP circles is that of Bhojpuri film star and singer Pawan Singh. Though no formal confirmation has emerged, a senior BJP leader from Bihar indicated that Singh’s popularity and mass appeal make him an attractive option should the party decide to field a high-visibility candidate.

Upendra Kushwaha’s uncertain future

Among the outgoing MPs, Upendra Kushwaha appears to be on the weakest footing. His party, the Rashtriya Lok Morcha, has just four MLAs in the Bihar assembly, leaving it far short of the numbers required to independently stake a claim for a Rajya Sabha seat.

Kushwaha’s entry into the Upper House in August 2024 was widely seen as a political adjustment following his defeat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections from Karakat and earlier assurances that did not materialise, including a berth in the legislative council. Since then, his political standing within the NDA has remained fragile.

Complicating matters further is the induction of his son, Deepak Prakash, into the Bihar cabinet, despite him not being a legislator. Allies say this development has made the BJP cautious, as accommodating Kushwaha again could invite accusations of promoting dynastic politics—an issue the party is particularly sensitive about.

Nevertheless, the RLM has maintained that there was a prior understanding regarding Kushwaha’s Rajya Sabha tenure. RLM Bihar chief spokesperson Ram Pukar Sinha told Hindustan Times that the agreement was linked to the 2025 Bihar elections. “It is now for the BJP to take a decision on this understanding. We are a strong constituent of the NDA, and all our MLAs remain firmly aligned with the party and the alliance,” he said.

JD(U)’s dilemma over seasoned leaders

Within the JD(U), attention is focused on the fate of its two outgoing Rajya Sabha members—Harivansh and Ram Nath Thakur. Both are senior leaders with deep institutional experience and are considered close to chief minister Nitish Kumar.

Traditionally, Kumar has been reluctant to send leaders to the Rajya Sabha for more than two terms, preferring rotation and generational change. However, given the stature of both Harivansh and Thakur, party insiders believe exceptions may be considered. Harivansh’s role as a senior parliamentary figure and Thakur’s long association with the party could weigh in their favour when final decisions are taken.

Chirag Paswan and the fifth seat conundrum

The fifth seat has also drawn attention because of Union minister Chirag Paswan. His party, with 19 MLAs, does not have enough numbers on its own to secure a Rajya Sabha seat, even with favourable NDA allocations. Paswan has reportedly been seeking a Rajya Sabha berth for his mother, Reena Paswan, a move that would require careful negotiation within the alliance.

Whether the NDA can accommodate Paswan’s demand without unsettling its internal balance remains an open question. Party leaders privately admit that managing aspirations within the alliance will be as crucial as dealing with the Opposition.

Opposition’s narrow window of opportunity

While the NDA remains the frontrunner, the Opposition—led by the RJD and its Mahagathbandhan allies—still has a narrow opening. If the Opposition manages to maintain perfect unity and prevent cross-voting, it could scrape together exactly 41 MLAs, the minimum required to win one Rajya Sabha seat.

However, political analysts caution that such unity is easier said than achieved. “Under Tejashwi Yadav, the Mahagathbandhan faces a crucial test of discipline and coordination. Given current numbers, the opposition risks dwindling representation,” said Dhirendra Kumar, a Patna-based political analyst.

A test of alliance management

As the April polls approach, the Rajya Sabha election in Bihar is shaping up to be less about raw numbers and more about alliance management, perception, and strategic compromise. For the NDA, securing four seats appears straightforward, but the fifth seat could become a litmus test of how effectively the coalition balances ambition, loyalty and political optics. For the Opposition, it represents a rare opportunity to assert relevance in an otherwise unfavourable numerical landscape.

The coming months are likely to see intense backroom negotiations, signalling, and recalibration—well before the ballot is cast.