Rising Tensions Between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban

Pakistan’s relations with the Afghan Taliban, once seen as a strategic partnership, have entered a period of heightened tension. Over the past weekend, deadly clashes erupted along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, killing dozens on both sides and highlighting the fragility of diplomatic ties.

Pakistani officials reported killing over 200 Taliban fighters, while Kabul claimed 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed. These clashes have underscored how quickly recent efforts at detente—following meetings between Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Taliban counterpart Amir Khan Muttaqi—have faltered.

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Islamabad’s Security Concerns

Pakistan’s northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province has seen a surge in attacks targeting military personnel, raising concerns about cross-border militancy. Islamabad accuses the Taliban of providing sanctuary to armed groups such as the Pakistan Taliban (TTP), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and the ISIL affiliate in Khorasan Province (ISKP).

The Taliban, however, denies these allegations, while recent attacks in Kabul and eastern Afghanistan have further inflamed tensions. The Pakistani military claims to have regained control of 21 posts on Afghan territory during the clashes, although casualty figures differ between the two sides.

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Defining a “New Normal”

Analysts suggest Pakistan is attempting to establish a “new normal” in its relations with the Taliban. Any attack believed to originate from Afghan soil—regardless of the perpetrator—could now invite retaliatory action inside Afghanistan, signaling Islamabad’s intention to hold the Taliban accountable for cross-border attacks.

Abdul Basit, a terrorism expert at Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, notes that Pakistan’s approach mirrors India’s recent military response to attacks originating from Pakistan in April 2025, but with a significant difference: Pakistan’s military superiority over the Taliban. While Pakistan restrained its response, its professional army has the capability to inflict far greater damage if necessary.

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The Role of the Pakistan Taliban (TTP)

The TTP, which emerged in 2007, remains Pakistan’s primary cross-border threat. Ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban but operationally independent, the TTP has increased its attacks on Pakistani security forces, recording over 600 incidents in the past year alone.

Islamabad repeatedly calls on the Taliban to dismantle TTP bases and restrict other militant groups, a demand echoed by regional powers including China, Iran, and Russia.

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Regional Diplomacy and the New Delhi Factor

The weekend clashes coincided with Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s visit to India, the first by a senior Taliban official since their 2021 return to power. India-Pakistan tensions, long intertwined with the Afghan conflict, add another layer of complexity. Islamabad alleges that New Delhi supports anti-Pakistan groups operating from Afghanistan, claims that India denies.

Pakistan’s airstrikes during Muttaqi’s visit sent a message that it may act militarily if it perceives collusion between Kabul and New Delhi to undermine Pakistani security. Analysts caution, however, that Islamabad must carefully calibrate its actions to avoid overextending itself on multiple fronts.

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Strategic Implications

The clashes and Pakistan’s evolving posture signal a hardening of Islamabad’s stance:

• Any cross-border attack may trigger a proportional military response.
• Diplomatic engagement with the Taliban may continue, but patience is wearing thin.
• Pakistan may consider leveraging anti-Taliban groups if Kabul fails to address security concerns.

Seema Ilahi Baloch, a former Pakistani ambassador, emphasizes the need for regional diplomacy, suggesting that China could play a key role as an intermediary.

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The Question of Pakistan’s Endgame

Experts stress that Pakistan’s ultimate objective remains unclear. Will the military actions compel the Taliban to curb TTP activity, or will they push the Taliban and TTP closer together? Analysts argue that the strategic calculus behind Islamabad’s strikes is aimed at signaling resolve, but the long-term effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain.