Since 1999, no federal or state budget in Nigeria has been fully implemented as originally presented by the President or Governor and approved by lawmakers. The reason is simple: budgets have become political instruments rather than genuine economic blueprints. They often resemble wish-lists by executives, rubber-stamped by legislatures, with little monitoring of actual execution. This has resulted in over 70,000 abandoned projects across the country—a stark reminder of public funds wasted and the failure of democratic accountability.

Budgets Ignore Past Performance
One fundamental flaw in Nigerian budgeting is the failure to consider previous outcomes. Each year, budgets are presented as if the nation is starting anew, ignoring the lessons from past successes or failures. This creates a cycle of self-deception: unrealistic projections become the norm, and the nation’s economic realities are consistently misrepresented.

Wishful Thinking and Unrealistic Assumptions
A glaring example of this is the assumption of crude oil production. Every federal budget since 2009 has assumed Nigeria would produce 2.3 million barrels per day (mbpd) for export. In reality, production has averaged around 1.4 mbpd—a gap that has predictable consequences:

• Lower dollar revenues, putting pressure on the exchange rate.
• Higher deficits as actual revenue falls short of projections.
• Increased inflation and economic instability.

Despite clear historical data, these assumptions are rarely corrected, demonstrating the persistent political rather than economic focus of budgeting.

Unrealistic Economic Targets
The 2025 budget illustrates this trend. While it assumes an exchange rate of N1400/$ and inflation of 15.8%, the reality by November 2025 was closer to N1690/$ and inflation approaching 33.5%. Budgets that ignore the true economic environment fail to serve as effective tools for national development.

Structural Challenges
Nigeria’s economic fragility also stems from structural issues:

• Limited economic diversification.
• Inadequate power supply and underperforming industrial sectors.
• Unproductive refineries and underdeveloped agriculture and agro-allied industries.

These factors make ambitious projections unrealistic and highlight the need for budgets grounded in economic reality rather than political aspirations.

Comparing Budgets 2022–2025

Year	Budget (N’trn)	Exchange Rate (N/$)	Budget ($bn)
2022	17.13	420	41.76
2023	21.83	434	50.11
2024	28.78	800	35.97
2025	47.90	1400	34.14

Rising naira figures mask declining real-dollar value, showing that the country’s economic power has weakened. Even if the 2025 budget’s assumed rate were realized, the economy would still face challenges; at the actual exchange rate, the real value of the budget falls further to about $28.4 billion.

Conclusion
Nigerian budgets have become political documents, reflecting wishful thinking rather than careful economic planning. Until the country begins to ground its budgeting in reality—accounting for past performance, structural challenges, and realistic economic projections—these annual exercises will continue to disappoint, and the nation’s citizens will continue to bear the cost.