Oil prices edged lower on Thursday amid growing expectations of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, which could pave the way for the unwinding of Western sanctions on Russian crude, analysts said. Trading volumes were muted due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, contributing to a relatively quiet market.

• Brent crude futures fell 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $63.01 per barrel as of 0722 GMT.
• U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 5 cents, or 0.1%, to $58.60 per barrel.

Both benchmarks had risen about 1% on Wednesday as investors weighed oversupply risks alongside the potential for a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv.

Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is scheduled to visit Moscow next week, accompanied by senior U.S. officials, to explore potential avenues for ending the nearly four-year-long conflict in Ukraine—the deadliest war in Europe since World War II.

Despite the talks, a senior Russian diplomat stated that Moscow is unlikely to make major concessions. Leaked communications suggested that U.S. officials have provided guidance on how Russia might frame proposals for President Donald Trump.

Market Analysts Weigh In

Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said:

“Oil is inching lower largely on hopes of a Ukraine peace breakthrough and a broader unwinding of the war premium. However, the market remains thin and directionless ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and the U.S. Thanksgiving lull.”

OPEC+ sources indicated that the group is likely to maintain current output levels at its meeting on Sunday. Some members have been increasing production since April to capture greater market share.

Sachdeva added:

“Prices remain vulnerable. Any progress on peace talks could release more Russian barrels into an already oversupplied market, keeping crude skewed toward medium-term downside despite short-lived price spikes.”

Other Factors Influencing Oil Prices

Limiting declines, expectations are rising for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. Lower rates typically boost economic activity, supporting energy demand.

Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, noted:

“WTI crude is likely to remain range-bound between $56.80 and $60.40 until year-end. Liquidity is thin, and the market awaits potential Fed guidance from the December 10 FOMC meeting.”