As mass protests sweep across Iran, Moscow has maintained a cautious and largely muted stance, signalling that Russia is unlikely to intervene directly despite centuries of strategic ties with Tehran. Analysts and former diplomats say the Kremlin is primarily focused on avoiding a “reputation failure” and preserving its own strategic interests.

Kremlin Sees Protests as Contained

The protests, which erupted on December 28, 2025, over economic hardships and political grievances, spread to hundreds of cities and towns across Iran, a country of over 90 million people. However, Russian experts suggest that Tehran has largely suppressed domestic opposition.

Nikita Smagin, a former Russian diplomat and leading Iran expert, told Al Jazeera that the Kremlin believes the unrest has peaked. According to Smagin, reports from Moscow’s embassy in Tehran indicate that authorities have regained control, allowing the Kremlin to “breathe a sigh of relief.”

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned what it called “illegal Western pressure” and accused unnamed external actors of attempting to destabilize Iran. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mariya Zakharova cited decades-old Russian rhetoric about “colour revolutions,” claiming that foreign forces deliberately exploit protests to overthrow friendly regimes.

Tensions Between Russia, the US, and Iran

The Russian response comes in the context of strong statements from former US President Donald Trump, who has encouraged Iranian protesters to “take over institutions” and claimed US assistance is imminent. Trump’s rhetoric, including a January 2 statement that the US is “locked and loaded,” has prompted Moscow to issue cautionary remarks without committing to action.

Despite condemning Trump’s threats, analysts like Smagin note that Moscow “can hardly do anything” to influence events, reflecting Russia’s current geopolitical and domestic constraints.

Historical Ties and Strategic Partnerships

Russia and Iran share a long, complex history. Centuries ago, Russian tsars seized Iranian territories that now form parts of the Northern Caucasus and the South Caucasus. In the 20th century, Soviet Russia attempted to influence northern Iran politically and economically.

In the post-Soviet era, Russia became a major international supporter of Tehran, providing advanced military equipment, including S-400 air defense systems, and assisting in building the Bushehr nuclear power plant. In return, Iran has supported Moscow’s military campaign in Ukraine by supplying drones, artillery, and other munitions.

However, Russia’s 20-year strategic partnership with Iran, formalized in 2025, did not include obligations for military intervention in domestic unrest. Analysts note that the Kremlin’s current stance is consistent with its prioritization of existing commitments, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Russia Avoids “Reputation Failures”

Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat who resigned in protest over the Ukraine war, told Al Jazeera that Moscow’s restraint is deliberate. “Why rattle sabres if it will only result in yet another reputation failure?” he said, emphasizing Russia’s domestic pressures and limited capacity for additional military action abroad.

Economic sanctions, rising domestic costs, and public fatigue over the Ukraine conflict limit Russia’s ability to intervene abroad. Many Russian citizens, focused on daily survival amid rising prices and repression, are unlikely to support military involvement in Iran.

Meanwhile, pro-Kremlin analysts such as Sergey Markov have suggested that Russia could play a role in advising Iran on political reforms and stabilization once protests subside. This approach signals Moscow’s preference for indirect influence rather than overt intervention.

Human Cost of Unrest in Iran

Iranian state media reports that more than 100 security personnel have died during the protests, while opposition groups claim thousands of civilians have been killed. Internet access has been largely cut off, making independent verification difficult.

Analysts note that, while foreign actors may play a role in inflaming tensions, the protests are rooted in genuine economic and social grievances. Nevertheless, Russia’s response has been limited to rhetoric, reflecting caution in a volatile international environment.

Conclusion

Russia’s muted reaction to Iran’s protests underscores the Kremlin’s strategic calculus: avoid reputational risk, preserve its military focus on Ukraine, and maintain influence through diplomacy and advisory roles rather than direct intervention.

While Moscow publicly condemns perceived Western interference, it has no plans to deploy troops or directly challenge US involvement. Analysts say the approach reflects Russia’s recognition of its domestic constraints, its prioritization of Ukraine, and a long-standing strategy of leveraging partnerships without overextending militarily.

As Iran suppresses protests and navigates calls for reform, Moscow appears content to play a background role, reinforcing its influence through strategic advice rather than risking further geopolitical setbacks.