November 1, 2025 – Russia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports for the January-to-October period declined by 3.4% year-on-year, totaling 25.2 million metric tons (mmt), according to data compiled by LSEG and ship-tracking sources. However, a strong rebound in October saw exports jump 21% to 3.4 mmt, driven in part by flows from the newly launched Arctic LNG 2 facility.

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Year-to-Date Weakness, October Strength

While overall volumes for the first ten months of the year are down, the October surge signals important structural shifts in Russia’s LNG export strategy:

• For the full January-October period: ~25.2 mmt, down 3.4% versus a year earlier.
• For October alone: ~3.4 mmt, up 21% year-on-year and up nearly 27% month-on-month.

The recovery in October has been attributed to the ramp-up of Arctic LNG 2 exports, even as U.S. sanctions continue to hamper Russia’s tanker fleet and shipping logistics.

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Regional Patterns: Asia Up, Europe Down

The regional breakdown highlights Russia’s pivot from Europe toward Asia:

• Exports to Europe in the first ten months: ~11 mmt, down 17.9% year-on-year.
• European shipments in October: ~0.79 mmt, down 21% from October 2024.
• By contrast, key Asian-bound facilities showed growth:
  • Yamal LNG (operated by Novatek): October shipments grew 8% year-on-year to ~1.76 mmt, and were up 17% from September. Full year YTD dropped to ~15.2 mmt (down ~6%).
  • Sakhalin‑2 (controlled by Gazprom): October exports rose ~10% year-on-year to ~0.98 mmt.

China also received its first cargo from Arctic LNG 2 in late August, and as of October, about 13 tankers from that project have unloaded at the Beihai LNG terminal in southern China.

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Sanctions, Supply Chains & Strategic Reorientation

Russia’s LNG export profile remains constrained by U.S. sanctions—particularly on the tanker fleet that moves LNG from Arctic zones—which limits the flexibility of shipments. The launch of Arctic LNG 2 proves strategically important, enabling Russia to redirect flows away from Europe (where demand and access have both dropped) toward Asian markets.

Given geopolitical pressures and Western sanctions, the shift toward Asia is increasingly crucial for Russia’s energy export outlook. The surge in October suggests that Russia may be adapting more quickly than many expected.

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Key Takeaways

• Despite a year-to-date decline in LNG exports, Russia achieved a strong rebound in October, driven by new Arctic LNG capacity.
• The Asia market is increasingly absorbing Russian LNG volumes, while European exports continue to shrink sharply.
• Structural factors—sanctions, tanker limitations, geography—are pushing Russia to reorient its LNG strategy toward non-Western markets.
• Market watchers will be paying close attention to whether the October spike is a one-off or the beginning of a sustained shift.