November 1, 2025 – Russia’s long-standing non-GMO soybean trade with China is unlikely to be disrupted, even after the recently concluded bilateral soybean purchase agreement between the United States and China. A high-ranking Russian government source confirmed that Moscow’s niche market for non-genetically modified soybeans remains “safe,” reaffirming Russia’s unique position in the global soy trade.
This statement was made in the wake of last week’s U.S.-China deal, finalized during a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Under the agreement, China has committed to purchase 12 million tons of American soybeans this season—primarily genetically modified soybeans used for livestock feed.
Russia’s Strong Position in Non-GMO Soybean Niche
Despite lagging behind major soybean exporters like Brazil, the U.S., and Argentina, Russia has carved out a valuable role in supplying exclusively non-GMO soybeans to China. These soybeans are prized for human consumption and form the foundation of traditional food products such as tofu, soy milk, miso, and soy sauce.
In 2024, Russia ranked fifth among China’s soybean suppliers, sending as much as 0.8 million metric tons of non-GMO soybeans, according to data from the Moscow-based IKAR agricultural consultancy. Estimates for this year indicate Russia could export up to one million tons, buoyed by a record 9 million-ton soybean harvest in 2025.
“We are the only ones in the world who grow soybeans this way,” said the government source, who chose not to be named. “Our non-GMO soybeans are in a class of their own, and we see steady demand in China.”
Russia Targets Chinese Market Growth Amid Global Non-GMO Trends
Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut traveled to Beijing this week to meet with China’s Agriculture Minister Han Jun, aiming to bolster agricultural trade relations at a crucial time. Despite China’s renewed commitment to U.S. soybeans, Lut signaled confidence in Russia’s positioning within China’s competitive food market.
During the talks, China and Russia discussed ongoing approvals for additional Russian agricultural exports, including winter wheat, though negotiations have stalled for several years.
Following the meeting, Lut emphasized that Russia’s food exports to China rose by 10% in the first nine months of 2025, led by sunflower and rapeseed oils, frozen fish, crustaceans, and meat.
“Our products meet the strictest standards of food quality and safety,” she stated. “I am confident they will help diversify China’s food market and meet growing consumer demand.”
A Growing Global Market for Non-GMO Foods
Russia’s strategy appears aligned with global consumer trends. The non-GMO food market, according to Fortune Business Insights, is projected to reach nearly $2 trillion by 2032, up from an estimated $895 billion in 2025. As the world’s most populous nation, China is a key player in this evolving landscape.
Russia banned GMO cultivation in 2016 as part of a long-term effort to appeal to health-conscious consumers in both domestic and international markets. That strategy appears to be paying dividends as health, sustainability, and transparency continue to shape global food demand.
U.S.-China Soybean Deal: Competition or Complement?
While the U.S. seeks to boost agricultural exports through renewed trade relations with China, market analysts suggest both the U.S. and Russia can coexist in the Chinese soybean market. The U.S. supplies primarily GMO soybeans for animal feed, while Russia targets food-grade, non-GMO soybeans.
As consumer preferences lean further toward organic and natural products, especially in Asian markets, Russia may continue to gain ground in the premium segment of China’s import portfolio.
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