Madrid, October 15, 2025 — Spain’s European Union-harmonised inflation rate climbed to 3% in September, up from 2.7% in August, according to final data released on Wednesday by the country’s National Statistics Institute (INE).

The figure matches the earlier flash estimate published two weeks ago and aligns with forecasts from analysts polled by Reuters, confirming that price pressures remain persistent across the Spanish economy despite broader European disinflation trends.

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Inflation Rises in Line With Forecasts

The 3% annual increase in Spain’s EU-harmonised consumer prices — the metric used to compare inflation across the European Union — signals a modest acceleration driven primarily by rising food and energy prices.

The data reinforces expectations that price stability remains a challenge for policymakers as the European Central Bank (ECB) continues balancing inflation control with the need to support economic growth across the eurozone.

According to the INE, core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as fresh food and energy, remained unchanged at 2.4% over the 12 months through September. This suggests that while headline inflation ticked up, underlying inflationary pressures have stabilized.

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National Consumer Prices Mirror EU Trend

Spain’s national consumer price index (CPI) also rose 3% year-on-year in September, compared with 2.7% in August, slightly higher than the 2.9% preliminary estimate published earlier.

The increase reflects continuing cost pressures in essential goods and services, including housing, transport, and food products, although the pace of inflation remains well below the double-digit rates seen in 2022 following the energy crisis.

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Food and Energy Remain Key Drivers

Economists note that much of the uptick in inflation can be attributed to higher energy costs and rising food prices, particularly in dairy and grain products. The rebound in oil prices and transport-related expenses has also added to the inflationary momentum.

Despite these factors, inflation in Spain remains below the eurozone average, highlighting the country’s relative resilience within the region. Analysts believe that Spain’s energy diversification and targeted fiscal measures have helped moderate the overall impact on households.

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What Core Inflation Tells Us

The core inflation rate of 2.4% is a critical indicator for the ECB and Spanish policymakers because it reflects underlying price trends unaffected by temporary energy or food fluctuations. The unchanged reading suggests that price stability efforts are starting to take effect, though the path toward the ECB’s 2% target remains gradual.

Economists at several Spanish banks commented that the September data supports the view that inflation may hover around 2.8–3% for the remainder of 2025 before easing further in early 2026.

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Broader Eurozone Context

Spain’s inflation trend mirrors developments across much of Europe, where several countries have reported mild rebounds in headline inflation due to volatile energy markets and global supply chain adjustments.

For the European Central Bank, the data will likely reinforce a cautious policy stance. With eurozone inflation still above target, analysts expect the ECB to delay any rate cuts until early 2026, pending more consistent evidence of price moderation.

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Outlook for Spain’s Economy

Spain remains one of the eurozone’s best-performing major economies, with steady growth supported by strong tourism, job creation, and recovering domestic demand. However, persistent inflation could erode purchasing power if wage growth fails to keep pace.

The Spanish government has emphasized its commitment to maintaining energy subsidies and fiscal support where necessary, to cushion the effects of price increases on lower-income households.