As Bihar heads toward the assembly elections, nominations for both phases are set to close within four days. What has dominated headlines this week is not the campaign trail, but the intense jockeying for seats within both major alliances— the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led front.
Yet, beyond the noise of candidate lists and seat-sharing formulas, a deeper shift appears to be taking place — one that could redefine Bihar’s political narrative itself.
Alliance Tensions and Tactical Calm in the NDA
Within the NDA, tensions have surfaced between Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] and smaller allies such as the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and the Rashtriya Lok Manch (RLM), all uneasy over the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) being offered 29 seats. However, the BJP seems to be the most organized of the lot, having swiftly announced candidates for all 101 constituencies in its quota. The JD(U) followed suit shortly after.
Despite grumbling among allies, the friction is far less severe than in 2020 — when Chirag Paswan, then aligned with the NDA at the Centre, openly targeted Nitish Kumar during the state polls, nearly torpedoing the coalition. That internal sabotage cost the JD(U) dearly and almost handed victory to the RJD.
This time, the BJP appears to have learned its lesson. The party has realized that any move to weaken Nitish Kumar, however tempting, would be self-defeating. As the columnist puts it, Nitish is “like an old general — not leading the charge himself, but still commanding the missiles.” Removing him could trigger a backlash from his loyal social base, particularly among the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) and women, who continue to see him as a stabilizing figure.
Even so, unease within NDA ranks will likely persist beyond the elections, with Nitish’s moral authority clashing against the BJP’s growing centralization of power.
The Opposition’s Identity Crisis
On the opposition side, the picture is far more chaotic. The RJD-led alliance has yet to even finalize a seat-sharing formula — a shocking delay given how close the nomination deadline looms. Individual parties have gone ahead and announced their own candidates, exposing rifts and confusion within the coalition.
What is most striking, however, is the lack of political sharpness in the RJD’s campaign. Having joined hands with Nitish Kumar twice since 2015, the RJD has diluted its anti-incumbency narrative — a weapon it could have wielded as the principal opposition party for two decades.
To make matters worse, there is a growing perception that parts of JD(U)’s leadership are now more aligned with the BJP than with Nitish himself. As a result, the opposition finds itself attacking neither the government nor its leader, allowing Nitish to hover above the fray as a sympathetic figure — “a chief minister of 20 years, out of the campaign but also out of the firing line.”
The RJD, under Tejashwi Yadav, seems to be projecting a campaign rooted more in dynastic entitlement than in substantive policy alternatives. To many observers, it feels like Tejashwi’s bid for power is presented as a matter of birthright rather than ideology or performance. The columnist notes, sharply, that “even his siblings do not seem excited about the idea.”
This narrative vacuum has been filled, in part, by Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which has built momentum by attacking entrenched political elites — stealing much of the anti-establishment energy that the RJD once commanded.
From Mandal vs. Kamandal to Mandates of Survival
To understand the current drift, one must revisit the cycles of Bihar’s political evolution since the 1990s.
- In 1995 and 2000, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s politics of social justice and secularism — representing the Mandal movement’s assertion of backward castes — dominated the state.
- Nitish Kumar’s rise in 2005 marked the beginning of an alternative vision: development, order, and governance. His 2010 victory for the NDA symbolized Bihar’s rejection of the old “Lalu Raj.”
- The Modi era (post-2014), however, disrupted Nitish’s delicate coalition of extremes. Forced to choose between Mandal and Kamandal, Nitish oscillated — breaking with the BJP, joining the RJD, and then returning again.
- The 2015 grand alliance victory — the high point of Mandal solidarity against the BJP’s Hindutva push — was short-lived, as personal and ideological contradictions tore Nitish and Lalu apart.
- Since then, Bihar’s politics has become a revolving door of alignments, driven less by ideology and more by survival and tactical arithmetic.
By 2025, the ideological poles that once defined Bihar — caste justice vs. communal consolidation — have blurred.The state that once symbolized India’s social churning now mirrors the national trend of transactional, personality-driven politics.
The 2020 Lesson and What Changed Since
In 2020, Nitish faced severe anti-incumbency after 15 years in power. The BJP’s internal sabotage through Chirag Paswan’s “friendly fire” nearly split the NDA vote. While the RJD emerged as the single largest party, it could not translate that momentum into a decisive win.
Five years later, Nitish’s position is paradoxically more stable — not because of his popularity, but because no other force has offered a coherent alternative. The BJP’s welfare populism and Nitish’s residual credibility together have built a protective layer around the government.
The RJD, meanwhile, appears trapped between nostalgia and inertia. Its social base remains strong among Yadavs and Muslims, but it has failed to articulate a new economic or developmental vision that resonates with younger voters. The poor, especially women — once the RJD’s potential constituency — are now targeted effectively by the NDA’s populist welfare schemes, particularly those involving cash transfers and rural housing.
A Flattened Political Landscape
The columnist argues that Bihar’s once vibrant political dialectic — the back-and-forth between social justice and economic reform — has flattened into a “plain vanilla model” of freebies and power maintenance.
Both the NDA and RJD alliances are now caught in a politics of distribution without transformation. The ideological richness that once made Bihar a microcosm of Indian democracy — its caste mobilizations, reformist experiments, and insurgent movements — has been replaced by managerial politics and controlled populism.
The irony, as the piece notes, is that Bihar, once seen as politically advanced despite economic poverty, may now resemble the rest of the country: a place where welfare and image trump ideology and reform.
Conclusion: The End of Bihar’s Exceptionalism?
As campaigning begins, barring a last-minute collapse within either alliance, the seat-sharing squabbles will soon fade from public memory. What will matter then is whether any party can craft a compelling story of change.
For now, the NDA seems content to coast on stability and welfare populism, while the RJD struggles to find its footing in a landscape where Mandal versus Kamandal no longer defines the battlefield.
Nitish Kumar, the perennial survivor of Bihar politics, may not be leading the charge this time — but he remains the axis around which the entire contest revolves.
If the current trends hold, Bihar’s 2025 election could mark not just another chapter in its cyclical politics, but perhaps the end of an era — when Bihar’s politics was distinct, dialectical, and ideologically alive. From here on, it may look increasingly like the rest of India: a politics of continuity rather than contradiction.
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