Ethiopia’s Afar region has reported that forces from Tigray have crossed into its territory, capturing several villages and allegedly attacking civilians, in what authorities described as a violation of the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended the brutal northern Ethiopian war.

Details of the Incursion

In a statement released Wednesday, Afar officials said Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) fighters “entered Afar territory by force,” seizing control of six villages and launching mortar attacks on civilians. The statement did not provide casualty figures but condemned the actions as “acts of terror.”

The attack targeted the Megale district in northwestern Afar, where civilian herders were reportedly caught in heavy weapons fire. Authorities warned that if TPLF forces do not immediately halt their operations, the Afar Regional Administration would take defensive measures to protect its population and territory.

“The TPLF learns nothing from its mistakes,” Afar officials said, emphasizing the continued threat posed by the group.

Background: The Tigray War and Pretoria Peace Agreement

From 2020 to 2022, Tigray was the epicenter of a devastating two-year war between the TPLF and Ethiopia’s federal army, resulting in at least 600,000 deaths, according to the African Union. The conflict also spread into neighboring regions, including Afar, where local forces fought alongside federal troops.

The Pretoria peace agreement, signed in November 2022, formally ended hostilities between Tigrayan leaders and the federal government. While the accord maintained a fragile peace for several years, recent months have seen escalating tensions between Addis Ababa and the TPLF.

Political Context and Renewed Tensions

The TPLF, which dominated Ethiopian politics from 1991 to 2018, was officially removed from the country’s political party register in May 2025, amid growing mistrust and internal divisions within the federal government. Authorities have also accused the TPLF of re-establishing ties with neighboring Eritrea, a nation with a long and tense history with Ethiopia, including a border war from 1998 to 2000 that killed tens of thousands.

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who signed a historic peace deal with Eritrea in 2018, faces renewed challenges as tensions flare along the northern and northeastern borders. Analysts warn that the Afar incursion could destabilize the region further, potentially reigniting a larger-scale conflict.

Humanitarian Concerns

Civilians in the Afar region remain at risk, with reports of attacks on herders and local villages. Humanitarian agencies have yet to confirm casualties, but the situation highlights the ongoing vulnerability of communities in conflict-prone areas of Ethiopia.

The federal government and Afar authorities have called for immediate action to prevent further TPLF incursions, emphasizing the importance of restoring the Pretoria peace agreement and avoiding a return to large-scale warfare in northern and northeastern Ethiopia.