Trump-Endorsed Republican Wins Closely Watched Tennessee Race

Matt Van Epps, the Republican candidate endorsed by former President Donald Trump, has won a closely watched special congressional election in Tennessee, defeating Democratic challenger Aftyn Behn. The race was widely seen as a test of Democratic strength in a traditionally deep-red district that has not voted for a Democrat since 1980.

Van Epps, a former state commissioner, secured about 54 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for Behn, according to partial tallies reported by The New York Times. Despite the clear margin, the race was considered historically competitive for the district.

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Background on the 7th Congressional District

The 7th congressional district of Tennessee, which includes parts of Nashville and surrounding rural areas, has been a Republican stronghold for decades.

• Trump won the district by 22 points in the 2024 presidential election.
• Van Epps’s predecessor, Mark Green, who resigned in July, had won by over 20 points in 2024 and 2022, and by more than 40 points in 2020.

Van Epps received high praise from Trump, who called him a “MAGA warrior” and celebrated the victory on Truth Social, noting the Democratic efforts to influence the race:

“The Radical Left Democrats threw everything at him, including Millions of Dollars. Another great night for the Republican Party!!!”

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Democratic Challenge and National Attention

Democrats had hoped to flip the seat as a symbolic victory ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Progressive figures like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Vice President Al Gore campaigned for Behn, highlighting growing dissatisfaction with Trump’s leadership.

Ocasio-Cortez praised Behn’s effort, stating:

“The very fact that this race is in play shows we are in a time when anything can happen, and miracles can happen, including in Tennessee. Behn has shown incredible guts.”

Despite strong campaigning, Behn narrowly trailed Van Epps in most polls. Emerson College surveys showed Van Epps at 48 percent, Behn at 46 percent, with 5 percent undecided.

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Influence of Campaign Spending and Redistricting

The race saw significant financial investment from both sides:

• MAGA Inc, a pro-Trump super PAC, contributed $1 million to Van Epps’s campaign.
• House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, matched that with $1 million to support Behn.

While Tennessee’s 7th district was not affected by this year’s redistricting battles, the 2022 Republican-led redistricting split Democratic-leaning Nashville across three districts, reinforcing Republican dominance in the 7th district.

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Implications for the 2026 Midterms

The special election outcome comes less than a year before the 2026 midterms, where all 435 House seats will be contested. With Republicans holding a narrow majority in both chambers, each seat is critical.

Analysts viewed the Tennessee race as a barometer for Republican strength, especially after recent Democratic wins in off-year elections, including governor races in New Jersey and Virginia.

A recent Gallup poll highlighted Trump’s declining popularity, with only 36 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval, adding national scrutiny to the local election.

House Speaker Mike Johnson emphasized the importance of voter turnout, noting:

“Special elections are strange animals, and anything can happen. You cannot assume the Republican will win, even in a deep-red district. We encourage everyone to go out there and make their voices heard.”

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Conclusion

The victory of Trump-backed Matt Van Epps reinforces Republican dominance in Tennessee’s 7th congressional district while serving as an early indicator of potential Republican resilience heading into the 2026 midterms. For Democrats, the close contest suggests that, while flipping deep-red districts remains challenging, strategic campaigning and national support can make these races competitive.