New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that two western disturbances (WDs) are likely to affect the Western Himalayan region next week, raising the possibility of isolated heavy rainfall and snowfall around January 23, 2026. The development comes after a period of severe dryness in the region, which has experienced one of its driest winters on record.

According to the IMD, the northwest plains may also see isolated to scattered rainfall from January 22 to 24. However, dense to very dense fog is expected to continue over northwest India and Bihar over the next two to three days, potentially affecting travel and local temperatures.

So far, the rainfall deficiency across the northwest has been stark. Between January 1 and 17, 2026, the deficit in precipitation was 92% in Uttarakhand, 92% in Himachal Pradesh, and an alarming 97% in Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh. The region received little to no rainfall or snowfall, leaving hills parched at the peak of winter, according to previous IMD reports. Observers have compared the conditions to a localized drought over the Himalayas. By comparison, December 2024 saw only an 18% rainfall deficiency, highlighting the severity of the current dry spell.

“The approaching western disturbances may reduce the rainfall deficiency over hills and northern plains, but they cannot fully compensate for the deficit since December,” said M. Mohapatra, Director General of IMD. He added that the second WD, arriving around January 22, could be intense and bring significant rainfall.

The dry conditions this winter have largely been attributed to the fact that previous western disturbances remained in northern latitudes above the Indian region and therefore did not influence the Western Himalayas. “The main reason for such dryness is that western disturbances did not impact the Western Himalayan region this winter,” Mohapatra had said earlier.

Temperature Outlook and Circulations

The IMD noted that minimum temperatures over northwest India are expected to remain largely unchanged over the next four days, with a potential rise of 3-5°C in the following three days. Meanwhile, conditions are becoming favourable for the cessation of northeast monsoon rains over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, and South Interior Karnataka over the next 48 hours.

Meteorologists highlighted existing weather systems contributing to current conditions. A western disturbance in the form of a cyclonic circulation is present over southern Pakistan, with an induced cyclonic circulation lying over central Rajasthan at lower tropospheric levels. Additionally, the subtropical westerly jet stream with core winds of approximately 135 knots at 12.6 km above mean sea level prevails over Northeast India, influencing the movement of the upcoming western disturbances.

Current Temperatures Across the Country

As of January 19, 2026, minimum temperatures were reported as follows:

• 1–4°C across most of Himachal Pradesh and some areas of Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh;
• 5–9°C over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, southwest Bihar, north Rajasthan, north Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and some parts of interior Odisha and Sikkim;
• 10°C and above for the rest of the country, except higher reaches of the Western Himalayas where temperatures remain below freezing.

The lowest minimum temperature recorded in the plains was 1.7°C at Amritsar, Punjab. Across India, minimum temperatures are currently above normal by 2–5°C in Central and western India, below normal by 2–4°C in parts of Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, north Chhattisgarh, interior Odisha, Telangana, and Rayalaseema, and near normal elsewhere.

Larger Climate Context: La Niña and El Niño

Globally, La Niña conditions are prevailing, with equatorial sea surface temperatures below average across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during January–March 2026, and a 58% chance of an El Niño developing in July–September.

El Niño years in India are historically associated with weak monsoons and extreme summer temperatures. Experts warn that an El Niño emerging in 2026, combined with human-induced climate change, could lead to record-breaking temperatures and heightened climate variability. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has emphasized that naturally occurring events like La Niña and El Niño are now interacting with a warming climate, intensifying extreme weather and affecting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.

Outlook for Next Week

With the two western disturbances expected in quick succession, the IMD forecasts potential improvements in rainfall and snowfall over the Western Himalayas, which may slightly alleviate the parched conditions. However, the deficits from December and early January are unlikely to be fully compensated. Residents of the region are advised to remain alert for fog, sudden rainfall, and snow, which could impact travel, especially in mountainous areas.

Meteorologists will continue to monitor the western disturbances closely, as these systems are critical for replenishing water in Himalayan watersheds and influencing weather patterns across northern India. Farmers, local authorities, and tourism operators are advised to plan accordingly for potential precipitation events around January 22–24.

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