The U.S. government shutdown of 2025 is sending ripples far beyond American borders, leaving policymakers in Japan, the United Kingdom, and other nations grappling with the absence of vital economic data from the world’s largest economy. The sudden pause in official data releases could cloud international decision-making on currencies, trade, and inflation, illustrating that what happens in the United States rarely stays in the U.S.
Officials worldwide warn that being left data-blind could complicate their own policymaking, increasing the risk of missteps at a time when countries are already adjusting to President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape global trade policies.
Global Concerns Over U.S. Data Gaps
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda described the lack of U.S. data as a “serious problem” during a briefing on October 3, emphasizing the challenge for the BOJ in deciding when to resume interest rate hikes. A senior Japanese policymaker added that while the Federal Reserve claims to follow a data-dependent approach, the absence of official numbers makes policy planning extremely difficult.
Catherine Mann, a policy member of the Bank of England, highlighted that while U.S. data disruptions don’t immediately dictate British policy, they act like “termites,” slowly undermining the stability of the global financial system over time. She warned that shifts in U.S. governance or compromises in Federal Reserve independence could erode confidence in the dollar, impacting its central role in the global economy.
The IMF and World Bank Weigh In
The shutdown comes as finance ministers and economic leaders gather in Washington for World Bank and IMF meetings, amid an already volatile global landscape marked by European conflicts, Middle East tensions, and long-term challenges like climate change.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook highlights that political interference in data collection, including President Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics head over a jobs report, risks undermining public confidence in statistics. According to the IMF:
“Pressures on technocratic institutions mandated with data collection and dissemination could erode the public’s and markets’ trust in official statistics, complicating central bank and policymaker decisions…It also raises the likelihood of policy mistakes if political interference compromises data quality, reliability, and timeliness.”
Partial Data Still Available, But Uncertainty Grows
While some data remains accessible through the Federal Reserve and private data providers, gaps caused by the shutdown create a broader sense of uncertainty. Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, noted that the shutdown contributes to skepticism about U.S. governance and data reliability, which can influence reserve management, currency strategies, and market volatility.
Robert Kahn, director of global macro at Eurasia Group, added that although policymakers are compiling micro-level and anecdotal evidence, uncertainties will compound over time. “The risk of error rises as uncertainties compound,” he said, underscoring the potential long-term consequences for global economic planning.
Implications for Global Economic Outlook
Prior IMF analysis found that while Trump-era policies had some initial negative impact on global growth, the overall effect was less severe than expected. Global growth forecasts, initially trimmed to 2.8%, were largely restored to 3.2% in the latest projections. However, with the U.S. economy accounting for roughly a quarter of global output, any prolonged gap in data could cloud international assessments and hinder informed policymaking worldwide.
The 2025 U.S. government shutdown is not just a domestic issue; it represents a global economic risk, highlighting how political decisions in Washington can affect currencies, trade negotiations, and central bank strategies across the globe.
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