U.S. import prices unexpectedly remained unchanged in September, as higher costs for consumer goods, excluding motor vehicles, were offset by declines in energy prices, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Economists had forecast a modest 0.1% increase, following a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in August.

September Import Price Overview

The flat reading in import prices marks a temporary stabilization after months of modest fluctuations. On a year-over-year basis, import prices increased 0.3%, the first annual rise since March 2025, following a 0.1% decline in August.

Imported fuel costs fell 1.5% in September, extending August’s 0.5% decline, while natural gas prices dropped 3.0%. Food import prices decreased 0.8%, reflecting lower global commodity costs. Excluding fuel and food, import prices rose 0.3%, consistent with trends observed in August. Core import prices, which exclude volatile items, have advanced 0.8% over the past 12 months.

Factors Affecting Import Prices

Economists note that the modest pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices has so far limited inflationary pressures. Many businesses appear to be absorbing tariffs rather than passing them on to consumers, though analysts caution that continued margin declines may eventually affect spending on capital investment and labor.

The U.S. dollar’s weakness—down about 5.6% against the currencies of major trading partners this year—has also contributed to fluctuations in import prices, partially offsetting gains in other areas.

Sector-Specific Trends

• Imported consumer goods (excluding motor vehicles): +0.4%
• Imported capital goods: -0.2%
• Motor vehicles, parts, and engines: unchanged

These sector-specific movements indicate a mixed impact on U.S. businesses and consumers, with consumer goods continuing to experience moderate price growth while capital equipment costs stabilize.

Implications for Federal Reserve Policy

Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to meet next week to discuss interest rate decisions. While some policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have expressed skepticism about further rate cuts, others support reducing rates to stimulate growth. The stability in import prices may influence the Fed’s deliberations, particularly in balancing inflation control with economic growth objectives.

Economic Outlook

Despite the flat import price reading, U.S. producers continue to face pressure from rising domestic costs, especially in food and energy sectors. Analysts suggest that while short-term inflation may remain contained, ongoing currency fluctuations and tariff policies could influence consumer prices, import costs, and overall economic growth in the coming months.