Savage, Minnesota, January 9, 2026 – U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters on Friday that the Treasury has more than enough funds to cover any tariff refunds that might be ordered if the Supreme Court rules against President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs. While he believes the court is unlikely to overturn the tariffs, Bessent warned that any refunds would likely be a “corporate boondoggle,” with companies that passed costs to customers potentially facing complications.

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Treasury Preparedness for Tariff Refunds

The U.S. Treasury currently holds nearly $774 billion in cash, with projections estimating a balance of approximately $850 billion by the end of March 2026. This gives the government ample capacity to manage any refunds related to tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

Bessent explained that any repayment process would likely be gradual:

“We’re not talking about the money all goes out in a day. Probably over weeks, months, may take over a year, right?”

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Tariffs and Inflation

Bessent disputed claims that Trump’s emergency tariffs significantly contributed to U.S. inflation, stating that companies generally did not pass tariffs onto consumers. He emphasized:

“There was very, very little, if any, pass-through.”

According to Bessent, goods inflation remained below headline inflation, indicating that tariffs were not a major driver of rising consumer prices.

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Legal Context and Potential Complications

The Supreme Court has not yet issued a ruling on the tariff challenge. The case questions Trump’s authority under IEEPA to impose broad tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners.

Bessent suggested that any ruling might be nuanced rather than a simple yes-or-no decision, potentially complicating the refund process. He cited examples like Costco, which is suing the government over tariffs, questioning whether companies would reimburse their customers for any refunded duties.

Importers have expressed concerns about recouping tariffs if the court invalidates IEEPA-based duties. While Customs and Border Protection reported $133.5 billion in tariffs through mid-December 2025, Bessent noted this figure is not fully reflective of tariffs subject to potential refunds.

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Fiscal Outlook and Treasury Capacity

Bessent highlighted that the Treasury’s fiscal position is strong:

• Cash on hand: $774 billion
• Projected end-March 2026 cash balance: $850 billion
• Expected deficit reduction for 2025 vs. 2024: $300–$400 billion

The Treasury operates on a fiscal-year basis, reporting a $1.775 trillion deficit for fiscal 2025, which ended on September 30, 2025. Bessent’s comments indicate that even in the event of large tariff refunds, the Treasury can manage the financial obligations without significant strain.

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Market Implications

If the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, the government could be required to refund as much as $150 billion, according to Reuters calculations. However, Bessent emphasized that such refunds would be spread over months or even a year, minimizing immediate market disruption.

The statement reassures importers, investors, and the public that the Treasury is financially capable of handling large-scale tariff refunds while maintaining fiscal stability.