Washington, Jan 9, 2026: US President Donald Trump has signaled support for the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, a bill in the Senate that would impose steep tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, potentially affecting India, China, Brazil, and others, according to US Senator Lindsey Graham. The legislation has already gathered 84 co-sponsors in the Senate and could come up for a vote as early as next week.

The bill, introduced in April 2025 by Senator Graham, aims to punish nations that continue buying Russian oil, uranium, natural gas, petroleum, and petrochemical products, which the US argues help finance Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. Tariffs under the bill could reach 500% on goods and services from countries violating the restriction, though the legislation allows the President a one-time 180-day waiver if it is deemed in the US national security interest.

Graham emphasized that the measure gives Trump “tremendous leverage” to pressure countries like India, China, and Brazil to stop buying Russian oil, which the US asserts fuels Putin’s military operations in Ukraine. While Trump endorsed the bill in July last year, it has not yet been voted on in the Senate.

Potential Impact on India

Indian exports to the US have already been impacted by previous sanctions. After tariffs were raised to 50% in August 2025 due to Russian oil purchases, Indian exports to the US still grew to roughly $7 billion in November, a 22% increase over the prior year. Experts warn that a 500% tariff would effectively halt Indian goods exports to the US and severely disrupt services exports, which currently contribute to a trade volume exceeding $120 billion annually.

Trade analysts caution that services exports, including IT and business process outsourcing, could face legal and practical complications if the US attempts to levy tariffs, since taxing services payments involves US firms paying taxes on foreign services, a mechanism that has not previously been implemented.

Legislative Prospects

Observers are divided on whether the bill will pass.

• Skeptics note that Trump historically relied on emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs, bypassing Congress. With the legal basis of IEEPA under challenge in the US Supreme Court, some view congressional approval as uncertain.
• Supporters argue that bipartisan backing in the Senate, combined with Trump’s support, gives the bill a high probability of passage. Analysts point out that reduced recent purchases of Russian oil by countries like India may provide diplomatic leverage to avoid triggering tariffs.

Broader Context

The proposed sanctions come as diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine war remain stalled. While the Trump administration has occasionally sought engagement with Moscow, congressional sentiment has been markedly hawkish, pushing for stringent penalties on Russia and any countries facilitating its energy exports.

Experts warn that the bill, if enacted, could severely affect India-US trade relations and disrupt the global energy market, particularly for countries dependent on Russian crude. The focus now shifts to whether the US House and Senate will pass the bill and whether Trump will sign it into law after congressional approval.

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