US Stock Futures Muted Ahead of Market-Moving Events

U.S. stock index futures traded cautiously on Friday, with investors refraining from significant bets ahead of two major market catalysts: the December nonfarm payrolls report and a Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

At 5:36 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 9 points, or 0.02%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 5.5 points, or 0.08%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis gained 40 points, or 0.16%.

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Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Could Shake Markets

The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which analysts say could introduce volatility across financial markets. During November arguments, several justices expressed skepticism about the president’s authority to impose these tariffs.

A ruling against the tariffs could impact government revenue, though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated his main concern is the potential loss of Trump’s leverage rather than revenue.

Analysts at Rabobank noted:

“A verdict against the U.S. president could spark a new bout of uncertainty… Equities may rally if the court rules against tariffs. However, this may be short-lived as Trump has indicated that his team has prepared alternative proposals to replace the existing tariff schemes if necessary.”

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Focus on December Nonfarm Payrolls

The nonfarm payrolls report for December 2026, set for release before the market opens, is the first major labor data following the historic U.S. government shutdown late last year. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect payrolls to have increased by 60,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to tick lower to 4.5% from 4.6%.

Market data shows investors are pricing in about 60 basis points of Federal Reserve easing in 2026, though several Fed policymakers have cautioned against further cuts until the health of the labor market becomes clearer. Rabobank analysts said:

“The report will probably confirm a further softening of the U.S. labor market, but we doubt that the numbers will be weak enough to convince a majority of central bankers that another rate cut is urgently needed.”

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Wall Street Recap: Mixed Index Performance

On Thursday, Wall Street’s main indexes ended mixed:

• The Nasdaq fell due to declines in technology stocks.
• The Dow rose, boosted by consumer discretionary shares, offsetting tech losses.
• The S&P 500 closed flat.

Despite mixed daily performance, all three indexes are positioned for weekly gains, driven by consumer discretionary and mining sector strength. The Dow is set for its largest weekly gain since late November 2025.

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Notable Stock Movers in Premarket

• Lockheed Martin (LMT.N): up 1.2%, following defense spending optimism.
• RTX (RTX.N): up 0.8%, stabilizing after Thursday’s rally.
• Intel (INTC.O): gained 2.4% after Trump described a “great meeting” with CEO Lip-Bu Tan.

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Market Outlook

Investors remain cautious as they weigh the Supreme Court tariff decision and the jobs report. Any surprises in payrolls or a ruling on tariffs could trigger volatility across equities, commodities, and bond markets, making this a pivotal week for Wall Street.