Italy head coach Gennaro Gattuso had a weekend to forget—long before his side suffered a damaging 4–1 home defeat to Norway, a result that confirmed Italy must now navigate the unpredictable World Cup play-offs to reach the 2026 World Cup in Canada, Mexico and the United States.

For a nation that failed to qualify for both the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, the pressure is immense, and Gattuso’s frustration was palpable. Having won six of their eight qualifiers, Italy still finished second in their group and now face two single-leg play-offs—an unforgiving route that has already haunted them twice in recent years.

As Europe battles for only 16 available World Cup spots despite having 54 competing nations, Gattuso publicly questioned whether Fifa’s expanded 48-team format is fair to Europe. He highlighted South America’s six automatic places and Africa’s nine, insisting the current system makes qualifying disproportionately difficult for European teams.

But does Gattuso have a legitimate complaint—or is this simply frustration following another disappointing result?

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What Exactly Did Gattuso Say?

Before Italy even kicked a ball against Norway, goal difference had already ensured they would not finish top of their group. Speaking on Friday, Gattuso expressed dissatisfaction with the structure of modern qualifying:

“In my day, the best runners-up went straight to the World Cup. Now the rules have changed.
Italy won six matches, yet we go to the play-offs.
In 1990 and 1994 there were two African teams, now there are nine.
Look at South America—six of 10 go directly. That gives you sadness. The system needs to change in Europe.”

However, several of Gattuso’s claims were factually incorrect:

• 1994 had three African teams, not two.
• 1990 did not guarantee qualification for all runners-up (Denmark missed out).
• Bolivia, despite finishing seventh in CONMEBOL qualifying, are not guaranteed to face an Oceania side in a single play-off game—they must progress through an intercontinental mini-tournament.

So while Gattuso’s frustration is understandable, some of his criticism is built on misconceptions.

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Why Is European Qualifying So Difficult?

To evaluate fairness, we must first understand the structure. In 1994, only 39 European nations participated in qualifying; now there are 54. Yet Europe receives just 16 World Cup spots, representing less than 30% of entrants.

More teams naturally mean more fixtures—but the international match calendar has not expanded. UEFA could create eight huge groups of six or seven teams so runners-up could qualify directly, but:

• A seven-team group requires 12 matchdays
• The calendar only offers 10 international slots per year
• Expanding qualifiers would require eliminating the UEFA Nations League, something the confederation wishes to preserve

Thus, UEFA opted for smaller groups of four and five teams to reduce intensity and travel. Ironically, this choice makes slip-ups more costly and the play-offs even more treacherous—precisely the opposite of what Gattuso suggests.

And while Italy were the top seeds, they were grouped with Norway, one of Europe’s fastest-rising sides. Italy lost both matches by a combined 7–1, a reminder that qualification difficulty sometimes reflects performance rather than structure.

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Does South America Have an Easier Route?

On paper, South America appears to have the softest path:

• Only 10 countries compete
• 6 qualify automatically
• 1 enters the intercontinental play-offs
• That means 60% of CONMEBOL participants reach the World Cup, compared with Europe’s 29.62%

However, the raw numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Strength of Opposition

CONMEBOL has:

• 8 of 10 nations ranked inside the world’s top 50
• A lowest-ranked team (Bolivia, 76th) stronger than 20 European nations

UEFA may have more top-50 nations overall (26), but it also has far more low-ranked teams.

Italy, for example, faced Norway—ranked 43rd before qualifying began. Bolivia faced eight top-20 opponents during their campaign.

Travel Burden

CONMEBOL qualifying is also notoriously brutal:

• 18 matches
• Spread across nine international windows
• Huge travel distances between South American cities
• Many players flying back from Europe each window

Compared to Europe’s short-haul journeys and only eight qualifying matches, the South American format is physically demanding and logistically challenging.

So while the numbers favour CONMEBOL proportionally, the difficulty of competition arguably balances the system.

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Does Africa Have Too Many Qualification Spots?

Africa now has nine World Cup places among 53 competing nations. Only seven of those teams currently sit inside the world’s top 50, suggesting slight overrepresentation.

Yet these nations—such as Morocco, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Algeria, and Egypt—are all competitive on the world stage. Ghana, the lowest-ranked of the nine (73rd), is the outlier but remains a respected footballing nation.

Measured proportionally:

• Africa holds 21.43% of World Cup spots
• But only 14% of its teams are top-50 nations

This indicates a small imbalance, but not one large enough to invalidate Africa’s qualification expansion—especially as FIFA aims to diversify representation.

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Asia: The Real Wild Card

Interestingly, the confederation most overrepresented is Asia (AFC):

• Only four of its 46 nations (8.70%) are top-50 sides
• Yet it receives eight automatic places (19.05%)

This gap is far wider than in Africa or Concacaf. If Gattuso were searching for statistical backing for his argument, Asia—not Africa or South America—provides the strongest case.

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So, Is Gattuso Right or Wrong?

Partly right, partly wrong.

✔ Where Gattuso has a point:

• Europe’s share of World Cup spots has dropped dramatically since the 1990s
• UEFA has many high-quality nations forced into difficult qualifiers
• Asia’s allocation appears disproportionate compared with its competitive strength
• The European play-off system is extraordinarily cut-throat

✘ Where Gattuso is mistaken:

• His comparisons to past World Cups are factually inaccurate
• South America’s qualification difficulty is underestimated
• Africa’s nine places are not unreasonable given their competitive progress
• Italy’s position is partly due to on-field shortcomings, not structural injustice

Ultimately, qualifying systems are shaped by global representation, commercial interests, and the desire to widen the tournament’s reach—not only by competitive balance.

And while Europe may feel squeezed, sympathy is likely to be in short supply given Italy’s own performances.