Bihar’s 2025 assembly elections revealed cracks in a long-standing political alliance that has shaped the state’s politics for decades: the M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) combination, historically the backbone of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). For the first time in decades, discontent and disengagement among Muslim voters significantly weakened the RJD’s hold, contributing to the party’s overall underperformance. The results leave the Grand Alliance facing a potentially existential challenge, with only 11 Muslim lawmakers expected in the incoming assembly — the lowest in recent memory.

The Historical Context of Muslim Support for RJD

The relationship between the Muslim community and the RJD traces back to a defining moment in 1990. Newly elected Chief Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav intervened decisively to stop the Rath Yatra led by BJP leader Lal Krishna Advani in Samastipur, which was promoting the Ram Temple movement in the disputed Ram Janmabhoomi Babri Masjid site. The Yatra had triggered widespread communal riots across India. By taking a strong stand, Prasad established himself as a defender of secularism in Bihar, securing the trust and loyalty of the Muslim electorate and effectively wresting their support from the Congress.

During his 15-year rule, Prasad cultivated this support by maintaining a delicate balance of community leadership and grassroots patronage. While Muslims remained economically disadvantaged and lagged behind on education and health indices, he promoted key religious leaders, elevated influential community strongmen, and positioned the RJD as a rustic, people-centric alternative to Nehruvian secularism. For decades, this strategy solidified the Muslim vote as a core component of the RJD’s political base, forming a durable partnership with the dominant Yadav constituency — the famed M-Y formula.

Signs of Shifting Loyalty

Despite this historical loyalty, the 2020 and 2025 elections signaled a shift. The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) made significant inroads, winning five seats in 2020 and repeating the performance in 2025, particularly in Seemanchal, the border region where Muslims are concentrated. Many AIMIM candidates ran unsung campaigns, yet secured victories in constituencies with up to 50% Muslim populations, often outperforming RJD or Congress candidates. While the RJD tried to project Tejashwi Yadav as a communal-friendly alternative and warned voters against AIMIM as the BJP’s “B-team,” this messaging failed to resonate with ordinary voters.

The Grand Alliance managed to win only five of the 24 seats in Seemanchal, an area that was once considered an unassailable stronghold. This marked a dramatic erosion of the Muslim vote base that had long been integral to the RJD’s electoral strategy.

Causes of the Erosion

Several factors contributed to this shift:

1. Fatigue and Disenchantment: Decades of reliance on the M-Y alliance created expectations that were not always met. Many voters felt taken for granted, leading to disengagement and a sense that their support was assumed rather than earned.
2. Lackluster Campaigning: The RJD’s campaign in 2025 failed to energize the Muslim electorate. While symbolic promises, such as scrapping the Waqf law, were touted, they were insufficient to inspire trust or enthusiasm among ordinary voters.
3. Resentment Over Representation: The Grand Alliance’s decision to project a candidate with only a 2% vote bank as deputy chief minister, rather than elevating a prominent Muslim leader, was perceived as stepmotherly treatment. This fueled dissatisfaction among Muslim voters who form roughly 17% of the state’s population.
4. Limited Effectiveness of Opposition Arguments: Efforts to leverage anti-BJP sentiment or the “TINA” (There Is No Alternative) narrative did not work as effectively as expected. Muslim voters, increasingly concerned with local development and material issues, were less swayed by symbolic or ideological appeals.

Electoral Consequences

The fallout from this disengagement was stark. The Muslim vote, once a pillar of the RJD’s electoral machinery, showed clear signs of fragmentation. This, combined with the Yadav vote remaining largely loyal to the party but insufficient on its own, resulted in a serious dent in the traditional M-Y combination.

The incoming Bihar assembly is expected to have only 11 Muslim legislators — the lowest number in decades — highlighting the scale of the shift and the challenge facing the RJD. Analysts warn that if this trend continues, it could threaten the party’s viability as a dominant force in Bihar politics.

Implications for the RJD

The 2025 election results underscore that long-standing political alliances cannot survive on historical loyalty alone. Voter expectations have evolved, and symbolic gestures without substantive outreach or material benefits are increasingly inadequate. For the RJD, rebuilding trust with the Muslim electorate will require more than rhetoric — it will necessitate a sustained effort to address local development, education, employment, and representation concerns.

Moreover, the rise of AIMIM as an alternative voice in Seemanchal signals that Muslim voters are now willing to explore new political options, particularly those that appear responsive to their needs and concerns. The RJD must contend with this challenge if it hopes to retain its traditional coalition base.

Conclusion

The erosion of the Muslim vote in Bihar’s 2025 elections represents a significant political shift. Fatigue, perceived neglect, and limited representation led to a fracture in a once-solid alliance that had been a cornerstone of the RJD’s success. For the party, the message is clear: symbolic appeals and historical loyalty are insufficient in a political environment where voters demand substantive engagement and material benefits. The elections may have ended the M-Y formula’s dominance, at least temporarily, leaving the RJD to recalibrate its strategy if it hopes to remain a central player in Bihar’s political landscape.