This seventh edition of my annual forecast may well be the last. Over the years, I’ve enjoyed making these predictions—the hits, the misses, and especially the big hits.

From accurately forecasting former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s defeats in 2019 and 2023 (and, yes, he will likely lose again in 2027), to predicting that at least five ministers would be removed in 2025—seven were eventually sacked—the thrill has always been watching events unfold just as anticipated.

A Complicated Year Ahead

The year 2026 will be defined by a collision of local politics, global power struggles, and increasingly harsh economic realities. Citizens will find themselves torn between lived hardship and recycled political promises as Nigeria inches closer to another election cycle.

Globally, geopolitical tensions will persist. Rivalries between Donald Trump’s America and Xi Jinping’s China, as well as Trump’s increasingly adversarial posture toward traditional U.S. allies, will continue to unsettle the international system.

At the same time, rapid technological advancement—especially in artificial intelligence—will further blur the line between reality and fabrication. As AI evolves from generic tools into agentic systems capable of independent thought and collaboration, misinformation will become even harder to detect. Welcome to the year of the humanoid.

Unrelenting Economic Pressure

Economic tensions at home will remain intense. The struggle between tight monetary policy and demands for lower interest rates and aggressive fiscal spending will deepen in this pre-election year.

Unless President Bola Ahmed Tinubu quickly addresses growing concerns that the Ministry of Finance is internally divided, aligning fiscal and monetary policy will become even more difficult, potentially eroding investor confidence.

Fuel prices will be closely watched. Petrol may hover around ₦850 per litre—if oil production rises to about two million barrels per day, NNPC is freed from major forward crude commitments, and global oil prices remain stable.

A Temporary Relief for Consumers

Consumers may enjoy an extended “Christmas bonus” through March, thanks to Dangote Refinery’s price cuts. NNPC-backed importers who stockpiled petrol late last year to hedge against an expected import duty were outmaneuvered, and the resulting competition should favour consumers—at least temporarily.

Electricity supply, however, will remain unstable. Nigeria’s aging transmission system still requires an estimated $500 million annually for rehabilitation and will likely experience multiple collapses. President Tinubu may announce private-sector participation in transmission through regional hubs involving players such as Dangote Group, Heirs Holdings, BUA, and Geometric Power.

2027 Arriving Early

Though it is only 2026, the political atmosphere already feels like 2027. Rumours of early elections are unlikely to materialise, but campaign calculations are well underway.

The ruling APC has gained strength through defections, including five sitting governors from opposition parties. While critics warn of a one-party state, the reality is more complex: a decade out of power has left the opposition financially weak and ideologically hollow.

The PDP remains fractured, with one faction aligned to FCT Minister Nyesom Wike and another effectively migrating into the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

The ADC Coalition and Its Limits

The ADC has become a gathering of unlikely allies—Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Nasir El-Rufai, and Rotimi Amaechi among them.

Despite the energy figures like Obi may bring, the ADC is unlikely to win in 2027 for three key reasons: weak grassroots presence, severe funding challenges, and the ruling party’s growing financial advantage through control of most states.

If the coalition survives at all, it is better positioned for 2031 than for the next election.

Governors, Money, and Power

Governors don’t always determine election outcomes—as seen in 2023—but circumstances have changed. With states now receiving significantly more federal allocations, the ruling party enjoys a stronger financial war chest. With 29 of 36 governors aligned with the APC, the party will fight aggressively to retain power.

Ironically, this dominance could later weaken the APC toward the end of Tinubu’s second term, especially during the battle to determine his successor.

Global Politics and the Trump Factor

Globally, Trump’s decisions—or lack thereof—will remain a source of instability. Trade tariffs, immigration policy, and healthcare reforms will dominate U.S. politics. By November, Democrats are likely to reclaim the House, reshaping American politics and weakening Trump’s grip over his party.

Trump’s presidency has also accelerated global efforts to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, with gold and alternative trade mechanisms gaining momentum.

Football and Final Predictions

The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off in June. While Argentina are defending champions, Spain appear best positioned to win, thanks to their cohesion, depth, and tactical discipline. Morocco remains Africa’s best hope, but Spain gets my vote.

For politicians and parties alike, 2026 will be a year of reckoning—where ambition meets reality, and where preparation, not promises, will determine the future.