As Bihar heads into a crucial two-phase assembly election on November 6 and 11, an unprecedented electoral exercise looms large over the political battlefield. The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls—initiated nationwide by the Election Commission (EC) on November 4—has already become a central issue in Bihar, the first major state where its impact could alter the course of an election. With an estimated 47 lakh voter deletions across the state, roughly amounting to 15,000 to 20,000 names removed per constituency, the question is no longer whether SIR will influence the election, but how deeply and in whose favour.

The scale of change becomes even more striking when viewed against the wafer-thin margins that shaped the 2020 Bihar assembly elections. In that election, 52 constituencies—more than one-fifth of the total—were decided by fewer than 5,000 votes, while 10 constituencies witnessed winning margins within a razor-thin 500 votes. In a state that has long been known for close contests and volatile swings, even a small shift in voter numbers can tip the scales drastically. And this time, the emergence of the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) of political strategist Prashant Kishor, expected to dent both major alliances, adds an entirely new dimension.

In 2020, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) finished as the single-largest party with 75 seats, closely followed by the BJP with 74 seats. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) eventually formed the government with 125 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan secured 110. With such tight margins and SIR potentially removing tens of thousands of voters across the electoral map, the outcome in 2025 could be transformed fundamentally.

Experts are sharply divided on the credibility of the SIR process and its potential to skew results. According to noted social scientist DM Diwakar, the deletions will “certainly leave a mark” on the polls. He voiced deep concern over the EC’s institutional autonomy, pointing to recent changes in the process of appointing Election Commissioners that removed the Chief Justice of India from the selection committee. “When the Election Commission is compromised, the battle becomes one-sided,” he said. Diwakar argued that the only viable countermeasure for the opposition is robust booth management, ensuring vigilant oversight on polling day.

Bihar’s total electorate stands at about 7.4 crore, and the state has recorded an overall voter drop of 6%, with deletions averaging 5.9% across constituencies. But the numbers vary starkly across regions, inflaming political tensions. The Seemanchal region, comprising the districts of Kishanganj, Purnea, Katihar, and Araria, has the highest deletion rate at 7.7%. This region is predominantly Muslim, with an average Muslim population of 48%, and has historically been a stronghold of the RJD and Congress. In 2020, the Mahagathbandhan won 15 of the 24 seats here.

It is in Seemanchal that allegations of bias are particularly intense. Local Muslims claim the deletions disproportionately targeted their communities, especially migrant workers who were away temporarily but retained voting rights. Many point to names removed without adequate verification, and they argue that this reflects a pattern rooted in political motives—specifically, the perception that Muslims rarely vote for the BJP. Several residents allege that their identification documents were ignored or incorrectly evaluated, leaving them disenfranchised weeks before the election.

The Election Commission, however, has rejected such allegations in its submission to the Supreme Court, calling them “communal” and insisting that the SIR process was conducted with accuracy and neutrality. The EC maintains that the higher deletion numbers reflect demographic factors such as migration patterns, urbanisation, and outdated records, rather than systematic bias. Still, the perception of unequal deletions has become a talking point across Seemanchal and could shape voting behaviour in unexpected ways.

Senior journalist Pranav Choudhary warns that the deletions could directly affect the Mahagathbandhan’s prospects in the region. He estimates that the alliance could lose 8 to 12 seats in Seemanchal alone if deletion patterns and vote fragmentation work against them. A significant portion of the Muslim votes—roughly 5-10%—might drift towards the AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi or Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, especially in constituencies where local dissatisfaction with traditional parties is high. In such tightly contested scenarios, even a small drift in vote share could determine victory or defeat.

The SIR debate is unfolding in a political landscape where all major parties—RJD, BJP, JD(U)—fall short of the 122 seats needed for a majority on their own. Bihar has historically favoured coalition governments, and even a minor redistribution of votes could reshape alliances and post-poll negotiations. But whether opposition parties have been able to sustain momentum against SIR remains uncertain. Rahul Gandhi’s “Voter Adhikar Yatra” in August briefly energised resistance, but observers say the campaign lost steam after the initial 17-day push, with little visible activity at the grassroots since then.

Economist Ashmita Gupta of the Asian Development Research Institute in Patna points out that government data collection during such revisions is often hurried, with protocols inconsistently followed. While politically active citizens typically ensure they are enrolled properly, the vast majority—especially the poor, migrants, and rural women—may lack the resources or awareness to verify their status, placing them at risk of deletion.

Former Chief Election Commissioner N. Gopalaswami, however, defends the EC’s logistical capability. He argues that instead of focusing on the absolute number of deletions, one should consider the sheer scale of the organisational challenge in Bihar, which now has 90,712 polling booths after adding 12,817 new ones to maintain the maximum of 1,200 electors per booth. With over one lakh Booth Level Officers (BLOs), roughly four lakh volunteers, and about 1.5 lakh Booth Level Agents (BLAs) appointed by political parties, the EC’s machinery, he believes, is equipped for the task.

What remains undeniable is that the SIR project—its timing, scope, and impact—will make Bihar a significant test case when the exercise moves to 12 more states and union territories. The outcome of the Bihar elections may provide the first substantial indication of how large-scale voter deletions under a national revision process can shape electoral outcomes in India’s complex, often fractious democratic landscape.