Updated on: November 12, 2025 | 10:30 PM IST

The latest exit poll by Axis My India has projected a comfortable victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)in the Bihar Assembly elections, estimating the alliance to secure 121–141 seats in the 243-member House. The poll also suggests that the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan is likely to lag behind, with an estimated 98–118 seats, reflecting a clear but not overwhelming edge for the NDA.

Interestingly, despite the projected lead for the NDA, the survey indicates that RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav is the most preferred choice for the Chief Minister’s post, garnering 34 per cent approval, while incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar comes second at 22 per cent. Among voters, 14 per cent indicated preference for “any candidate from BJP” as the top post holder. This divergence between party strength and CM preference adds a unique twist to the post-election narrative in Bihar.

Voting and Poll Predictions

The exit poll indicates the NDA could secure 43 per cent of the votes, while the Mahagathbandhan may receive 41 per cent. The newly formed Jan Suraaj Party, led by political strategist Prashant Kishor, is expected to get around 4 per cent of votes, indicating a minimal impact despite heavy campaign efforts. The poll results are based on surveys conducted immediately after the two-phase elections, held on November 6 and November 11.

Party-Wise Seat Projections

According to Axis My India, the NDA and its allies are projected to win the following number of seats:

NDA (121–141 seats)

• BJP: 50–56
• JD(U): 56–62
• LJP (RV): 11–16
• HAM(S): 2–3
• RLM: 2–4

Mahagathbandhan (98–118 seats)

• RJD: 67–76
• Congress: 17–21
• VIP: 3–5
• CPI (ML)L: 10–14
• CPI: 1–3
• CPI(M): 0–1

Others:

• Jan Suraaj Party: 0–2
• AIMIM: 0–2

This distribution reflects that while the NDA is likely to retain a majority comfortably, the Mahagathbandhan will maintain a significant presence in the state assembly, enough to influence debates and policy direction.

Tejashwi Yadav’s Rising Popularity

One of the most striking insights from the Axis My India poll is the public preference for Tejashwi Yadav as CM, despite the NDA’s projected seat advantage. With 34 per cent approval, Tejashwi appears to resonate strongly with voters across party lines. This may reflect dissatisfaction with incumbent leadership, the appeal of a younger generation of politicians, or regional dynamics that favor the RJD leader in personal popularity over party performance.

Nitish Kumar, despite being projected to lead his party to a majority in alliance with BJP, lags significantly in terms of personal approval at 22 per cent. This presents a nuanced scenario: while the NDA is expected to form the government, the preference for CM among voters leans toward the opposition leader. Political analysts suggest this could influence post-poll negotiations and coalition dynamics.

Decline of Jan Suraaj Party

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which was widely seen as a potential “kingmaker” in Bihar, appears to have failed to make a significant breakthrough. Both Axis My India and other exit polls, including Today’s Chanakya, have projected the party to secure 0–5 seats, indicating limited traction with the electorate.

The party’s low performance is notable given Kishor’s role as a political strategist and the high expectations set before the elections. Analysts suggest that while the party managed to raise key issues during the campaign, it failed to translate public sentiment into electoral success, possibly due to the strong polarisation between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan.

Comparison with Other Exit Polls

Axis My India’s projections align broadly with other major exit polls released over the past two days:

• Today’s Chanakya: NDA projected at 160 ±12 seats, Mahagathbandhan 77 ±12 seats.
• Matrize Exit Poll: NDA 147–167 seats, Mahagathbandhan 70–90 seats.
• Dainik Bhaskar: NDA 145–160 seats, Mahagathbandhan 73–91 seats.
• The People’s Insight: NDA 133–148 seats, Mahagathbandhan 87–102 seats.
• The People’s Pulse: NDA 133–159 seats, Mahagathbandhan 75–101 seats.

While the numbers differ slightly across pollsters due to methodology and sampling, the consensus is that the NDA is poised to win a clear majority, while the Mahagathbandhan will secure a significant number of seats, making it the primary opposition.

Implications for Bihar Politics

The results projected by Axis My India suggest a return to political stability for the NDA, with a comfortable majority in the 243-member assembly, where 122 seats are needed for a simple majority. However, the divergence between voter preference for CM and the winning alliance could shape post-election political strategies.

Tejashwi Yadav’s personal popularity could bolster the RJD’s bargaining power within the assembly, even if the Mahagathbandhan is not in a position to form the government. Analysts note that this scenario could influence coalition dynamics, party strategies, and policy priorities in the state over the next five years.

Additionally, the poor performance of the Jan Suraaj Party underscores the difficulties faced by new political entrants in challenging established alliances in a politically complex state like Bihar. It suggests that while electoral campaigns can generate attention and highlight key issues, voter loyalty and established party networks remain decisive factors.

Conclusion

As the Bihar electorate prepares for vote counting on November 14, the Axis My India exit poll provides a clear picture: the NDA is likely to secure a majority, yet Tejashwi Yadav remains the most preferred candidate for Chief Minister. This juxtaposition of alliance strength versus individual leadership preference adds a fascinating dimension to Bihar’s political landscape and will be closely watched by parties, strategists, and the public alike.

The final results will not only determine the next government but also indicate trends in voter sentiment, generational shifts in political preference, and the effectiveness of emerging political parties in challenging established alliances.