China’s solar power sector saw a significant rebound in October, with 12.6 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity installed, marking a 30% increase month-on-month, according to statistics released by the National Energy Administration (NEA). This growth comes as developers continue to recover from a mid-year slowdown triggered by uncertainties from a new renewables pricing mechanism.

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Background: Policy Changes and Market Impact

Earlier in 2025, China’s solar installations surged as developers rushed to complete projects before the implementation of a new policy that removed guaranteed rates of return for renewable energy projects. This policy shift had briefly created uncertainty in the market, leading to a temporary dip in mid-year installations.

Despite this slowdown, China’s solar sector remains on a strong growth trajectory, with year-to-date installations up 39% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 252.87 GW from January to October.

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Forecasts for Full-Year 2025

If the current pace of installations continues through December, China is expected to match or slightly exceed 2024’s record annual solar capacity addition of 277 GW. Analysts have suggested that the year-end surge could even push full-year 2025 solar capacity to around 300 GW, driven by developers rushing to complete projects before the year closes.

Historically, the final months of the year have seen a spike in solar deployments as companies finalize installations to meet annual targets and policy deadlines.

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Implications for China’s Renewable Energy Sector

• The rebound demonstrates resilience in China’s solar market despite mid-year regulatory adjustments.
• Sustained growth strengthens China’s position as a global leader in renewable energy deployment.
• Investors may regain confidence in the solar sector, given that the policy uncertainties are now largely resolved.
• Continued rapid expansion contributes to China’s climate and carbon neutrality goals, reinforcing its commitment to a low-carbon energy transition.

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Conclusion

China’s October solar installation surge reflects both a recovery from mid-year policy uncertainties and the country’s ongoing commitment to renewable energy expansion. With potential full-year capacity nearing 300 GW, China’s solar sector continues to drive global clean energy growth, supporting both domestic and international climate ambitions.