The 2025 Bihar assembly election once again revived a familiar political question: how indispensable is Nitish Kumar to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and can the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finally envision forming a government in Bihar without him? For over two decades, Nitish Kumar has remained one of India’s most enduring and adaptable political leaders—switching alliances, returning to old partners, and retaining his hold over Bihar’s power structures. But ahead of the 2025 election, uncertainties surrounding his health, age, and political plans led to widespread speculation: would the BJP choose to assert itself and push for its own chief minister if the NDA secured a comfortable majority? And was Nitish Kumar still the natural choice for the top job, regardless of seat tallies?

As counting progressed on November 14, these questions intensified. By 5.30 pm, trends clearly showed the NDA racing past the majority mark with an overwhelming lead. Early numbers indicated that the alliance was set to cross the 200-seat mark in the 243-member assembly—a performance far exceeding the expectations of many analysts. The BJP was leading or winning in over 90 seats on its own, while the Janata Dal (United) performed substantially better than in 2020, securing over 80 seats. With other NDA partners such as Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), and the Rashtriya Lok Morcha also notching up seats, the arithmetic appeared to suggest a striking possibility: the BJP, alongside minor allies, could theoretically form the government even without the JD(U).

This potential scenario stemmed from the fact that when the BJP’s early tally of above 90 was combined with the roughly 20 seats of the LJP(RV) and additional support from smaller parties, the NDA minus JD(U) could edge close to or even cross the majority threshold of 122. This raised an important question—if the numbers allowed the BJP the freedom to form the government independently of Nitish Kumar’s party, would it choose to do so? After all, the BJP has long sought the chief ministerial position in Bihar, a state in the Hindi heartland where, despite its size and influence, the party has never held the top post.

To understand why this conversation emerged again in 2025, it is necessary to revisit the political dynamics of 2020 and earlier. In that election, the JD(U) suffered a significant decline, finishing with only 43 seats compared to the BJP’s much stronger tally. Yet Nitish Kumar was still sworn in as chief minister, primarily because the BJP, despite being the dominant partner, lacked a regional leader with Nitish’s stature and administrative record. The party compensated by appointing two deputy chief ministers, a strategy seen by many analysts as an “insurance policy” when Nitish briefly left the NDA earlier to join hands with the RJD and Congress under the Mahagathbandhan.

Entering the 2025 election, there were doubts about whether Nitish Kumar would remain the BJP’s preferred choice for chief minister. At 74, with visible health concerns, he was not projected as the alliance’s formal CM face. The BJP also negotiated for an equal number of seats to contest, signaling a more assertive posture within the coalition. Many observers believed the party was preparing for a scenario where it could stake claim to the top position if the numbers favoured such a move.

However, as the final picture of the 2025 mandate took shape, it became clear that while mathematical possibilities existed for a BJP-led government without the JD(U), political realities told a more complex story. At the state level, the JD(U) had significantly improved its performance compared to 2020, demonstrating that Nitish Kumar’s appeal among voters—particularly among women and beneficiaries of welfare schemes—remains deeply rooted. The scale of the NDA victory was widely interpreted as a validation of Nitish Kumar’s governance model, often described as blending welfare delivery, improved infrastructure, and reforms aimed at social empowerment.

Moreover, politics is seldom governed solely by numbers, and the relationship between the BJP and JD(U) extends beyond Bihar. At the national level, the JD(U) plays a crucial role in sustaining the NDA government. After the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP secured only 240 seats—short of the 272 needed for a simple majority. It was the JD(U)’s 12 Lok Sabha MPs, along with those of LJP(RV) and the Telugu Desam Party, that enabled Narendra Modi to form the government for a third term. Without the JD(U), the NDA’s strength at the Centre would be significantly weakened, making it politically unwise for the BJP to alienate Nitish Kumar in Bihar.

This broader context explains why, even as some commentators floated the possibility of a BJP-led government without JD(U) support in Patna, the party’s leadership projected a different image. The first celebratory post shared by the Bihar BJP featured Prime Minister Narendra Modi clasping Nitish Kumar’s hand, accompanied by a caption underscoring the popularity of the Modi–Nitish partnership. The symbolism was unmistakable: despite occasional frictions, the alliance was intact and valued on both sides.

This public affirmation also reflected the memory of past political ruptures. In 2013, Nitish Kumar broke away from the NDA, objecting to Modi’s selection as the coalition’s prime ministerial candidate. He later returned in 2017 after an unsuccessful stint with the RJD-led coalition and then crossed back to the Mahagathbandhan in 2022 before rejoining the NDA ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The BJP, having experienced the volatility of these shifts, appears cautious about pushing Nitish away again, especially at a time when national-level numbers make every ally indispensable.

Looking ahead, many analysts believe that the BJP may indeed seek to install its own chief minister in Bihar at some point over the next five years. Such a transition, if it happens, will likely be gradual and negotiated rather than abrupt. For now, the overwhelming message from the mandate is that Nitish Kumar continues to command trust and support across sections of the electorate, allowing him to retain the chief minister’s post despite health concerns and evolving political equations.

In essence, while the BJP may not strictly need the JD(U) to form a government in Bihar from a numerical standpoint, it remains deeply dependent on Nitish Kumar to maintain political stability both in Patna and in New Delhi. Mathematics alone cannot define political alliances, especially in a state and an era where trust, continuity, and national-level implications weigh heavily on every coalition decision.