The Congress party in Bihar, reduced to a fragile group of just six MLAs following the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) landslide victory, is now gripped by the fear of imminent defections. Political observers and party insiders believe the ruling NDA, led by the BJP and JD(U), may exploit the party’s extreme vulnerability to engineer a ‘Congress-Mukt’ (Congress-free) Bihar legislature.

The NDA’s victory secured a combined tally of 202 seats in the 243-member assembly, leaving the Congress with little institutional relevance and making its small group of legislators a prime target for poaching.

The Vulnerability of Newly Elected MLAs

The primary source of anxiety within the Congress is the political profile of its newly elected MLAs. Many of the successful candidates are recent entrants or turncoats with shallow ideological ties to the party, making them susceptible to lucrative offers from the ruling alliance.

The fragility of the current Congress Legislative Party (CLP) is evident in its composition:

• Qamrul Hoda (Kishanganj): Joined the Congress in October 2025, just before the elections, after previously contesting on an AIMIM ticket in 2020.
• Manoj Biswas (Forbesganj): Aligned with the party in the first week of October 2025 before securing the nomination.
• Surendra Kushwaha (Valmiki Nagar): Joined the Congress only last year after quitting the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP).
• Abhishek Ranjan (Chanpatia): A Youth Congress leader whose close ties with former Deputy CM and BJP MLA Renu Devi raise concerns that he could be swayed by a political offer.
• Manohar Prasad (Manihari): A switchover from the JD(U) who has been criticized for rarely attending key party meetings.
• Obidur Rahman (Araria): Considered the potential exception as a long-standing Congress leader likely to remain steadfast.

History and Legal Precedent of Defections

The fear of poaching is compounded by the Bihar Congress’s history of internal decay and high-profile defections. In the past, the party’s base was significantly eroded when key leaders, including former Bihar Pradesh Congress Committee (BPCC) chief Ashok Choudhary, quit to join the JD(U).

Legal Threshold for Defection: Under the Anti-Defection Law (Tenth Schedule) of the Indian Constitution, an MLA can defect without disqualification only if they join another party as part of a merger involving two-thirds of the total members of their legislative party.

Since the Congress currently has 6 MLAs, the NDA would need to lure four of them (6×32​=4) to effect a merger with another party (e.g., BJP or JD(U)) and avoid disqualification under the anti-defection law. The political backgrounds of at least five of the six elected MLAs indicate that achieving this number is a real possibility for the NDA.

Internal Criticism of Party Strategy

Senior Congress leaders have attributed the party’s debacle and subsequent vulnerability to fundamental strategic flaws:

• Reliance on Turncoats: Former AICC member Kishore Kumar Jha stated that the “fear of poaching will continue to haunt the party as long as it depends on turncoats to contest elections.” He criticized the practice of giving tickets to “outsiders” who have no genuine commitment to the party’s ideology.
• Alliance Flaws: Jha strongly blamed the Mahagathbandhan’s strategy, particularly handing over the entire election to Tejashwi Yadav (RJD), which effectively marginalized the Congress and led to the “shameful defeat.”
• Loss of Core Vote Bank: Former MLA Harkhu Jha argued that the Congress must urgently rethink its policies and electoral tactics to reclaim its traditional vote bank, rather than chasing short-term gains through unstable alliances.

Former BPCC chief Akhilesh Prasad Singh has called for an immediate organizational revamp to enhance the party’s public connect and address the lack of coordination among the Mahagathbandhan allies, which resulted in vote fragmentation.

The consensus within the party is that failure to address these structural and strategic issues urgently could lead to the complete disappearance of the Congress from the Bihar political landscape.