French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is facing a decisive test of his leadership as the National Assembly prepares to vote on a crucial social security budget bill. The outcome of this vote could determine the stability of Lecornu’s government and France’s ability to fund healthcare, pensions, and welfare programs in 2026.

Parliamentary Debate on Social Security Budget

Debates on the proposed social security legislation began on December 9, 2025. Lecornu, who governs without a parliamentary majority following last year’s snap election, has sought support from opposition parties to pass the bill. In a bid to gain backing from the Socialist Party, the government agreed to suspend President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial 2023 pension reform, which raised the retirement age.

“This social security budget bill is not perfect, but it is the best possible,” Lecornu wrote on social media, emphasizing that failure to pass the legislation would jeopardize social services, public finances, and the functioning of parliament itself.

Political Support and Opposition

While Socialist leader Olivier Faure indicated that his party could support the bill under the suspension of pension reforms, opposition remains strong. The far-right National Rally and the hard-left France Unbowed have both publicly opposed the bill. Even some centrist and conservative allies, including members of the Horizons party and the Republicans, have expressed concerns. They argue that freezing the pension reform and raising taxes to secure socialist support undermines previous commitments made by the government.

If lawmakers reject the bill, France could face a funding gap estimated between 20 and 35 billion euros ($20–35bn), threatening healthcare, pensions, and welfare systems across the country.

Economic Context and Political Stakes

France, the eurozone’s second-largest economy, has been under pressure to reduce its large budget deficit. Political instability, however, has complicated these efforts. Since President Macron’s snap election last year resulted in a hung parliament, repeated budget disputes have destabilized the government, toppling three administrations, including former Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s cabinet over a no-confidence vote related to budget proposals.

Prime Minister Lecornu warned that rejection of the social security bill could nearly double the expected deficit from 17 billion euros to 30 billion euros, placing the entire 2026 public spending plan at risk. Without a timely agreement, the government may need to introduce temporary funding measures to prevent disruption of public services.

Narrow Path to Stability

The government aims to reduce France’s budget deficit below 5 percent of GDP next year, but political divisions and opposition resistance have made consensus difficult. Lecornu, a close ally of President Macron, must navigate a complex parliamentary landscape to secure the passage of the social security budget and maintain his premiership. The outcome of this vote will be a defining moment for Lecornu and for France’s broader fiscal strategy in 2026.