Greece has recorded a central government primary budget surplus of €12.65 billion ($14.8 billion) in the 11 months ending November 2025, significantly exceeding the targeted surplus of €7.70 billion, according to provisional figures released by the Greek Ministry of Finance.
Strong Fiscal Performance Driven by Higher Revenues and Controlled Spending
The primary surplus, which excludes debt-servicing costs, reflects a robust fiscal performance underpinned by:
- Higher-than-expected tax revenues, which reached €64.97 billion, approximately €330 million above the target.
- Government spending below projections, totaling €63.61 billion, €2.64 billion less than planned.
- Slightly elevated interest payments of €7.61 billion, which, while higher than anticipated, did not undermine the overall primary surplus.
Finance ministry officials highlighted that enhanced tax collection efforts, stricter measures against tax evasion, and the expansion of electronic payments played a key role in boosting fiscal performance.
Fiscal Context: Recovery from the Debt Crisis
Greece’s fiscal outperformance comes after years of recovery from the 2009-2018 financial crisis, which left the country heavily indebted and under strict international oversight.
- The country has gradually rebuilt its fiscal buffers and achieved consistent primary surpluses in recent years.
- Strong compliance measures and modernization of the tax system have expanded the tax base and improved transparency.
- Surpassing fiscal targets signals Greece’s strengthening economic fundamentals and reinforces confidence in the government’s budget management ahead of 2026.
Implications for Greece’s Economy
The stronger-than-expected surplus provides multiple benefits:
- Reduced Fiscal Pressure: More room for strategic spending without increasing debt.
- Debt Sustainability: Surpluses help reduce reliance on borrowing, easing debt-servicing pressures.
- Investor Confidence: Signals robust public finances, potentially attracting investment and lowering borrowing costs.
- Policy Flexibility: Allows the government to fund targeted growth initiatives or social programs in the coming year.
Key Figures at a Glance
| Metric | January–November 2025 | Target | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary surplus | €12.65B | €7.70B | +€4.95B |
| Tax revenues | €64.97B | €64.64B | +€0.33B |
| Expenditures | €63.61B | €66.25B | -€2.64B |
| Interest payments | €7.61B | N/A | Slightly above estimate |
Outlook for 2026
With the 2026 budget recently passed, Greece aims to maintain fiscal discipline while supporting economic growth initiatives, including infrastructure, digitalization, and social programs. Analysts expect continued emphasis on revenue collection and expenditure control to sustain primary surpluses.
The government’s overshooting of fiscal targets highlights its ongoing efforts to solidify Greece’s economic recovery post-crisis and position the country favorably in international financial markets.
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