India’s oil imports from Russia are poised to reach their highest level in five months in November, according to preliminary data from ship-tracking agency Kpler. The surge comes as refiners hurried to secure barrels before the U.S. deadline to end transactions with sanctioned Russian oil producers.

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India’s Role as a Major Russian Oil Buyer

As the world’s third-largest oil importer, India has become a key buyer of discounted seaborne Russian crude following Moscow’s exclusion from Western markets after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Provisional data from Kpler indicates that India’s purchases of Russian oil are expected to rise to 1.855 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, up from 1.48 million bpd in October. This marks the highest monthly import volume since July 2025, when imports stood at 1.52 million bpd.

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Surge Driven by Sanctions Deadline

The rise in imports is largely attributed to:

• Refiners rushing to fill stockpiles before the U.S. sanctions deadline of November 21.
• Preparation for EU regulations starting in 2026 that require oil products for the European market to come from non-Russian crude.

A trade source noted that November imports were boosted by pre-commitments by Indian refiners including Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Nayara Energy, and some cargoes for Reliance Industries.

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Expected Drop in December Imports

While November imports hit a five-month high, December shipments are projected to fall sharply, potentially to 600,000–650,000 bpd, as refiners seek alternatives to comply with Western sanctions.

• The EU has set a January 21 deadline, after which it will reject fuel from refineries that processed Russian crude within 60 days of the bill of lading.
• Bank scrutiny following the latest U.S. sanctions has made state refiners extremely cautious about transactions involving Russian oil.

Most Indian refiners, including Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals (MRPL), Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL), and HPCL-Mittal Energy, have already halted Russian purchases. Reliance Industries is processing only precommitted cargoes loaded before October 22 and will handle any arriving shipments before November 20 for domestic fuel production.

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Geopolitical Context and Strategic Considerations

The surge in imports comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit India next month. The visit underscores the strategic energy ties between India and Russia amid tightening sanctions from the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union targeting Moscow’s top oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil.

Analysts note that India’s balancing act—meeting domestic fuel demand while navigating sanctions and bank scrutiny—reflects the complexities of global oil markets and geopolitical pressures.

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Conclusion

India’s November spike in Russian oil imports highlights how sanctions deadlines can temporarily boost trade flows, even as longer-term volumes are expected to decline sharply. The coming months will test the ability of Indian refiners to secure alternative crude supplies and comply with evolving Western sanctions while maintaining domestic fuel security.