Vilnius, Lithuania – Lithuania has declared an “emergency situation” in response to a surge of meteorological balloons entering its airspace from neighboring Belarus. The move, announced by Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene on Tuesday, comes amid growing fears that Belarus, a close ally of Russia, may be engaging in hybrid warfare targeting Lithuania and testing NATO’s defenses.

The unusual aerial activity, previously linked to cigarette smuggling, is now suspected to involve Belarusian state security services. Lithuanian authorities have described the influx of balloons as a deliberate attempt to disrupt civil aviation and border security.

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Government Response and Measures

Under the emergency declaration, Lithuanian military forces will join police and border guards in patrolling vulnerable areas along the Belarusian border. Interior Minister Vladislav Kondratovic confirmed that prosecutors have launched an investigation into potential connections between the balloons and the Belarusian government. The secret services are also involved in monitoring and collecting intelligence regarding these operations.

Prime Minister Ruginiene stated:

“In combating the Belarusian hybrid attack, we must take the strictest measures and defend the areas most affected. All institutions are joining forces to address the threat posed by smuggling balloons.”

This emergency situation is one level below a state of emergency, which can only be enacted when Lithuania’s constitutional order is directly threatened. The measure provides enhanced authority to coordinate military, law enforcement, and intelligence activities to safeguard the country’s airspace and borders.

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Impact on Civil Aviation

The balloon incursions have already disrupted Lithuania’s civil aviation. Since October, Vilnius International Airport has been closed for over 60 hours, affecting more than 350 flights and approximately 51,000 passengers. Authorities argue that the balloons pose a direct risk to aircraft safety, forcing the temporary suspension of operations.

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Hybrid Warfare Concerns

The declaration comes amid heightened concern in Europe over Russian and Belarusian hybrid tactics, which include espionage, sabotage, and testing of NATO defenses. Lithuania is not alone: Poland and other Eastern European countries have faced similar provocations along borders with Belarus.

Lithuania previously declared an emergency in 2021 in response to a migrant influx from Belarus, which it also described as a hybrid attack. These actions underscore the growing complexity of hybrid threats that combine smuggling, airspace violations, and political pressure.

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Belarusian Response

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko dismissed the emergency declaration, claiming Lithuania was exaggerating the issue. He stated via the Pul Pervogo Telegram channel:

“Do they really want to fight? We don’t need war.”

Despite Minsk’s dismissal, Lithuania has expressed strong concerns over the security implications, particularly given Belarus’s alliance with Russia and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

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Strategic Significance

Experts emphasize that the balloon incidents are more than a smuggling problem. They represent a testing ground for Belarusian capabilities in preparation for hybrid confrontations with NATO members. By combining civil aviation disruption, smuggling operations, and intelligence-gathering, Belarus may be evaluating Lithuania’s defensive and response mechanisms.

The emergency declaration reflects Lithuania’s proactive approach to national security and highlights the continuing tensions between NATO countries and Russian-aligned neighbors in Eastern Europe.

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Conclusion

Lithuania’s emergency declaration over Belarusian balloons underscores the evolving nature of hybrid warfare in Europe. While initially linked to cigarette smuggling, the involvement of state actors has transformed the situation into a national security concern, prompting military intervention and cross-agency coordination. The incident also exemplifies the challenges NATO faces in countering low-intensity hybrid threats while maintaining civil operations and public safety.