November 6, 2025 – Moderna (MRNA.O) trimmed the top end of its 2025 revenue forecast by $200 million on Thursday, citing weaker-than-expected sales of its COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. amid limited access and changing public health guidance.
The company now expects annual revenue of $1.6 billion to $2 billion, down from the previous range of $1.5 billion to $2.2 billion. Despite the revenue revision, Moderna shares rose 5% in premarket trading after the company reported a better-than-expected third-quarter performance.
Third-Quarter Financial Performance
Moderna reported Q3 revenue of $1 billion, a 45% decline from the same period last year, but above analysts’ expectations of $886.54 million, according to LSEG data. The company posted a quarterly loss of 51 cents per share, significantly smaller than the forecasted $2.11 loss, while earnings in the year-ago quarter had been a profit of 3 cents per share.
The company’s COVID-19 vaccine revenue totaled $971 million, exceeding Wall Street estimates of $783 million, but far below its pandemic peak of $18.4 billion in 2022.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Luca Issi described the results as a “solid quarter,” noting that the narrowing of the annual forecast suggested revenues were concentrated in the third quarter rather than spread evenly across the year.
Impact of U.S. Guidelines on Vaccine Sales
Moderna’s revenue challenges are linked to new U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidance, which restricted COVID-19 shots to seniors and high-risk groups, complicating access at pharmacies.
- In August, the FDA limited updated COVID vaccines to targeted groups.
- In September, the CDC recommended that vaccination occur only after shared decision-making with a doctor, creating additional barriers for widespread uptake.
CFO James Mock stated that the timing of the CDC recommendation contributed to the decline in U.S. sales, though international sales were projected to offset part of the revenue shortfall by $100 million.
Moderna’s Pipeline and Future Revenue Streams
To compensate for declining COVID-19 sales, Moderna is focusing on newer mRNA-based vaccines, including:
- mRESVIA for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)
- An experimental COVID/flu combination shot
However, Q3 sales for the RSV vaccine were only $2 million, well below analyst expectations of $20.9 million, as Moderna competes with Pfizer’s Abrysvo and GSK’s Arexvy. The company is awaiting further FDA guidance on refiling for its combination vaccine after withdrawing its application in May to gather additional influenza efficacy data.
Additionally, Moderna recently halted development of an experimental cytomegalovirus vaccine following a failed late-stage trial.
Cost Management Outlook
Alongside the revenue revision, Moderna also lowered its adjusted operating expense forecast for 2025 by $700 million, projecting expenses between $5.2 billion and $5.4 billion. The cost reduction reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to streamline operations and manage spending amid declining COVID-related revenue.
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