Congress MP and former diplomat Shashi Tharoor has suggested that recent developments in Iran point to a possible easing of tensions after weeks of intense unrest, though he cautioned that any assessment remains tentative due to the near-total lack of reliable information emerging from the country. Speaking on Wednesday, Tharoor said his “gut feeling” was that the situation might be entering a less volatile phase, even as uncertainty continued to surround the scale of violence, the fate of detainees, and the future trajectory of the protests.

Tharoor’s remarks come against the backdrop of a prolonged communications blackout in Iran, where authorities have sharply restricted internet access and international connectivity following massive anti-government demonstrations that erupted late last year. The protests, which challenged the authority of the theocratic establishment led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were met with an unusually severe state response, drawing condemnation from human rights groups and foreign governments.

According to Tharoor, two recent signals stood out as potentially encouraging. The first was reports that Iranian authorities had cancelled the execution of more than 800 detainees whose deaths had earlier been announced or threatened. The second was a statement by US President Donald Trump indicating that Washington was holding off on military strikes against Iran “for the moment”.

“In some ways, it’s a hopeful sign that we may see a dialling down of tension,” Tharoor said. He added that countries in the Gulf region were likely deeply anxious about the consequences of a wider regional escalation, which could destabilise energy markets, trade routes and regional security. However, he was careful to underline the limitations of available information. “My gut feeling at the moment is we may have turned a corner. But we are not recipients of 100 per cent accurate information,” he said.

The flow of verifiable news from Iran has slowed dramatically in recent days. The pace of protests appears to have tapered off, with few fresh images or videos emerging from inside the country. Iran has been under a near-total internet blackout for days, severely restricting the ability of activists, journalists and rights groups to document events on the ground.

NetBlocks, a global internet monitoring organisation, has said Iran’s “total internet blackout” has now exceeded 180 hours, making it longer than similar shutdowns imposed during the 2019 protests. While authorities have reportedly eased some restrictions on international phone calls, access to the global internet and text messaging remains largely blocked, further obscuring the real situation.

Human rights groups warn that the apparent lull in visible protest activity does not necessarily mean tensions have dissipated. Norway-based organisation Iran Human Rights has verified at least 3,428 protester deaths since the unrest began, cautioning that the actual toll could be far higher due to restrictions on independent verification. Other estimates place the number of those killed anywhere between 5,000 and 20,000. The Associated Press has separately reported that at least 3,090 people have been killed, citing activist sources.

Despite reports of cancelled executions, hardline rhetoric within Iran has not disappeared. Senior cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, speaking in a sermon broadcast on state radio, reportedly renewed calls for the execution of detained protesters and issued threats against the US president. Such statements have fuelled fears that any perceived easing could be tactical or temporary rather than a genuine shift in policy.

Adding to the uncertainty, Iran’s exiled prince Reza Pahlavi has called for renewed, coordinated demonstrations against the regime. From abroad, Pahlavi has urged protesters to regroup and organise, arguing that sustained pressure is the only way to bring about meaningful political change. His calls underscore the fragility of the current moment, where signs of de-escalation coexist with the potential for renewed unrest.

International reactions have oscillated alongside developments on the ground. President Trump publicly thanked Iran’s leaders for not carrying out mass executions, describing the move as significant, even as Washington maintained pressure through rhetoric and diplomatic signalling. Analysts say the US decision to pause military action, at least temporarily, may be aimed at giving space for tensions to cool without foreclosing future options.

Tharoor’s comments also extended beyond Iran to the broader geopolitical landscape, particularly the situation in Gaza. He said that while a second phase of a peace process had formally begun, conditions on the ground remained grim and far from peaceful. “Unfortunately, there are still continuing attacks, so people are still dying in Gaza every day. It’s not peaceful for everyone yet,” he said.

He added that there was still no clear information on progress towards the disarmament of Hamas, a key element of any durable settlement. “It is by no means a normal, tranquil, peacetime situation yet. But let’s hope we get there, because the people of Gaza have suffered enough,” Tharoor said.

Gaza has been under a fragile ceasefire since October, though both Israel and Hamas have accused each other of repeated violations. During the truce, more than 450 Palestinians, including over 100 children, and three Israeli soldiers have reportedly been killed, underscoring the volatility of the situation despite diplomatic efforts.

In a significant political development related to Gaza, the White House recently announced the formation of a so-called “Board of Peace” to supervise the territory’s temporary governance during a transitional period. The board is chaired by President Trump and includes US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, special envoy Steve Witkoff, former British prime minister Tony Blair, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, among others. Notably, no Palestinians have been named to the founding executive board so far.

Under the plan unveiled in October, Israel and Hamas agreed to the creation of a Palestinian technocratic body to administer Gaza, overseen by the international board. A UN Security Council resolution adopted in mid-November authorised the arrangement and the deployment of an International Stabilisation Force to support it.

The proposal has drawn criticism from rights experts and commentators, who argue that an externally supervised governance structure risks resembling a modern form of trusteeship or colonial oversight. Tony Blair’s inclusion has been particularly controversial, given his role in the Iraq war and the historical legacy of British involvement in the region.

Israel’s military campaign in Gaza since October 2023 has killed tens of thousands of people, displaced the enclave’s entire population and triggered a severe hunger crisis. Multiple rights experts, scholars and a UN inquiry have described the assault as amounting to genocide, a charge Israel strongly rejects, saying it acted in self-defence after Hamas-led militants killed around 1,200 people and took more than 250 hostages in a late-2023 attack.

Against this backdrop of overlapping crises, Tharoor’s cautiously optimistic assessment of Iran stands out as a rare note of hope. Yet his repeated caveats underline a central reality of the current moment: in an era of blackouts, propaganda and fragmented information, even seasoned observers are forced to rely as much on intuition as on evidence. Whether Iran has truly “turned a corner,” or is merely pausing before another turn of repression or revolt, remains an open and deeply consequential question.