Nigeria has once again failed to meet its crude oil production quota as set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), according to the organisation’s latest monthly report.
The report indicates that Nigeria produced an average of 1.401 million barrels of crude oil per day, below the OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels daily for member countries.
Declining Production Trend in 2025
Crude oil output for the third quarter of 2025 averaged 1.444 million barrels per day, down from 1.48 million barrels in the second quarter and 1.46 million barrels in the first quarter. Monthly figures reveal further fluctuations:
- September: 1.39 million barrels/day
- August: 1.43 million barrels/day
- July: 1.50 million barrels/day
- June: 1.50 million barrels/day
- May: 1.45 million barrels/day
- April: 1.48 million barrels/day
- March: 1.40 million barrels/day
- February: 1.46 million barrels/day
- January: 1.53 million barrels/day
Out of the ten months reviewed from December 2024 to September 2025, Nigeria missed the OPEC quota on seven occasions.
Challenges Limiting Production
Industry experts attribute the persistent shortfall to pipeline vandalism, sabotage, and poor sector management, which continue to constrain Nigeria’s ability to meet production targets despite having significant capacity.
Experts have warned that ongoing underproduction could undermine revenue generation and slow economic growth, urging the government to intensify efforts to address these issues.
Struggles with Domestic Refinery Supply
Nigeria has also faced difficulties meeting local refinery demand. According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), 67,657,559 barrels of crude were supplied to local refiners between January and August 2025, falling short of the estimated requirement of 123.4 million barrels for the first six months of the year.
This means that approximately 45 percent of crude needed domestically was not supplied, forcing the country to rely heavily on fuel imports. SaharaReporters previously reported that Nigeria imported fuel worth N4.13 trillion between January and June 2025.
Eniola Akinkuotu, Head of Media and Strategic Communications at NUPRC, explained that the crude allocation aligns with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 and the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation policy, but acknowledged the gap in meeting refinery demand.
Implications
The failure to meet OPEC quotas and domestic supply needs underscores structural challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector, including sabotage, poor infrastructure, and weak management. Industry observers warn that without immediate reforms, the country risks further revenue losses and continued dependency on imported fuel.
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