Poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor has predicted a bleak future for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar, asserting that the coalition will “definitely” lose power and Nitish Kumar will not return as Chief Minister. Speaking to news agency PTI on Wednesday, Kishor forecast that Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] would struggle to win even 25 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, highlighting what he perceives as the alliance’s internal chaos and declining public support.

NDA in Trouble

According to Kishor, the NDA faces a serious electoral crisis in Bihar. “The NDA is definitely on its way out and Nitish Kumar will not return as chief minister,” he stated, emphasizing the JD(U)’s struggle to maintain relevance in the current political landscape. Kishor, who has previously worked closely with Kumar, first as a poll strategist and later briefly as a party colleague, led the JD(U)-led coalition to a two-thirds majority in the 2015 Assembly elections, using a narrative of Bihar pride to counter the BJP’s campaign.

However, Kishor now predicts a stark reversal of fortunes. He cited past internal challenges, including the Chirag Paswan revolt in the previous assembly elections, when Paswan fielded candidates against JD(U) nominees at the last minute, causing the party’s seat tally to plummet to 43. This, Kishor said, exemplifies the kind of “chaos” that continues to affect the NDA.

Seat-Sharing Woes

Kishor also highlighted confusion within the NDA over seat-sharing arrangements. While the BJP and JD(U) recently announced that they would contest an equal number of 101 seats each, Kishor claimed that disagreements over constituency allocations remain unresolved. “It is still unclear which seats the BJP will contest and where JD(U) wants to field its candidates,” he said, pointing to internal disorganization as a major electoral disadvantage.

He added that the opposition bloc, INDIA, is also struggling with internal differences. “There is a never-ending tiff between RJD and the Congress, and nobody knows if Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party is still aligned with them,” Kishor noted, indicating that political instability is affecting all major players in Bihar.

Prashant Kishor’s Role

Despite his high-profile presence in Bihar politics, Kishor announced that he will not contest the elections this time, attributing the decision to a collective agreement among his party members. He stated that he has taken on multiple responsibilities and that participating in the electoral contest would “distract” him from critical organizational work.

Bihar Assembly Elections 2025

The Bihar Assembly elections are scheduled in two phases next month, on November 6 and 11, with results expected on November 14. Kishor’s predictions set the stage for what could be a high-stakes electoral battle, with the NDA attempting to defend its ground against a fragmented yet strategically aligned opposition.

Political Context

The JD(U)’s declining influence, combined with alleged internal mismanagement, has opened questions about Nitish Kumar’s political future. Kishor’s forecast of a maximum 25 seats for the party underscores the challenges faced by Kumar, whose leadership has been pivotal to the NDA in Bihar over the past decade. Analysts view Kishor’s comments as a reflection of both historical party setbacks and contemporary uncertainties in alliance politics, particularly regarding seat distribution and voter sentiment.

In summary, Prashant Kishor’s predictions paint a grim picture for the NDA and Nitish Kumar’s leadership in Bihar, highlighting internal chaos, seat-sharing disputes, and past electoral missteps as major factors that could influence the assembly election outcomes next month.